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Prediction markets for Falcon

Will SpaceX' Falcon launch at least 700 times?

May 22, 5:47 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

98.12%chance

208255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8649

405

How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?

Aug 28, 2:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

89.73%chance

132514

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2716

461

In what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches?

Jan 15, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

192122

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2027-2028

After 2030 / never

2024-2026

44

34

20

1

When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times

Apr 14, 10:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

162034

OptionProbability

Before Jan 1 2029

Before Jan 1 2030

Before Jan 1 2028

Never

Before Jan 1 2027

2030 or later

Before Jan 1 2026

86

86

83

14

6

4

0

When do we see peak Falcon?

Jan 25, 2:38 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

121982

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

Other

2030

2024

41

18

16

11

6

4

3

1

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.98%chance

91530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

961

Will the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?

Dec 18, 5:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.77%chance

181518

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1999

553

Which quarterback will start a plurality of games for the Atlanta Falcons in the 2026 NFL season?

Apr 29, 6:14 AMJan 30, 3:59 PM

201414

OptionProbability

Tua Tagovailoa

Michael Penix Jr.

Other

Kirk Cousins

59

30

7

3

How many flights to orbit will Falcon 9 have made by the time it retires?

Mar 19, 2:02 PMMar 19, 11:59 PM

8910

OptionProbability

Fewer than 1300

Fewer than 1100

Fewer than 900

Fewer than 700

Fewer than 500

92

76

29

1

0

When will the last SpaceX Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch be?

Jul 18, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36%chance

15536

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1095

941

Will Falcon 9/FH Launch More Mass to Orbit than Starship in 2027?

Feb 3, 5:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.35%chance

6228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

81

Will New Glenn launch more than Falcon 9 in 2030?

Dec 21, 12:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.53%chance

484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

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