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Prediction markets for Falcon

Will the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?

Dec 18, 5:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1%chance

2816677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8999

78

In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?

Sep 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

156465

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

This will not have happened before the end of 2035.

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2027

2024

2025

2026

18

17

13

12

11

7

6

5

5

4

1

1

1

How many Falcon 9-family rockets will SpaceX have launched at the time of their retirement?

Aug 28, 2:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.93%chance

155718

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1913

584

In what year will the number of Starship launches exceed the number of Falcon launches?

Jan 15, 1:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

243095

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2029-2030

After 2030 / never

2024-2026

41

32

26

0

What year will Starship launch at least as many times as Falcon 9?

Jun 26, 1:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

102824

OptionProbability

2028

2029

Other

2027

2026

39

30

21

9

1

Will Falcon boosters have a longer run of sucessful landings than 267?

Aug 31, 9:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.42%chance

132372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1852

540

Will Falcon launch more times in 2027 than 2026?

Aug 17, 11:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.27%chance

71308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1927

646

When will the last SpaceX Falcon 9 / Falcon Heavy launch be?

Jul 18, 4:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.17%chance

171274

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1403

800

🏈 Atlanta Falcons (NFL) Prop Bets 🎲

Apr 15, 3:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81142

OptionProbability

Drafts at least one QB in the NFL Draft

Multiple QBs win a game

The team moves or is renamed before 2050

Scores over 23.5 points in Week 1

Wins a preseason game

100

100

50

0

0

How many flights to orbit will Falcon 9 have made by the time it retires?

Mar 19, 2:02 PMMar 19, 11:59 PM

11972

OptionProbability

Fewer than 1300

Fewer than 1100

Fewer than 900

Fewer than 700

Fewer than 500

92

83

24

1

0

Will Falcon launch more times in 2028 than 2027?

Aug 17, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.06%chance

8807

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

671

Will SpaceX perform Falcon 9 commercial rocket launches after 2028?

Aug 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.42%chance

10470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

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