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Prediction markets for Fall 2024

Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?

Aug 11, 3:53 AMOct 1, 3:59 AM

13.21%chance

6824805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25481

4296

Will Donald Trump be president of the United States on 12/31/2028?

Dec 20, 2:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.29%chance

5812856

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

1057

Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Black by 2028?

Jun 29, 7:18 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM

40.76%chance

766300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

1094

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Elon Musk financially backs campaign to remove Trump from office?

Jun 6, 3:13 PMDec 31, 4:06 PM

18.12%chance

172277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2126

470

Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?

Jun 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.95%chance

52267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

981

If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?

Jan 8, 12:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.48%chance

241978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

871

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

29%chance

171855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

640

Will Dome (YC startup) succeed before 2027?

Oct 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.31%chance

5550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

839

Will Harvard Admit a Class that is Less than 10% Hispanic by 2028?

Jun 29, 7:23 PMOct 1, 10:59 PM

64.09%chance

15466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

947

Will "Devon Larratt vs. Levan Saginashvili 3" ever happen?

Oct 2, 11:03 AMDec 31, 9:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will BMW Emissions end at?

Mar 8, 9:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 0.6

0.6 - 0.7

0.7 - 0.8

0.80 - 0.9

0.90 - 1.0

Above 1.0

17

17

17

17

17

17

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