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Prediction markets for Family Matters

Is volcanism caused by dark matter?

Dec 10, 10:10 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

9.46%chance

164448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

950

Will Claude 5 be released before June 1?

Mar 2, 10:12 AMJun 2, 10:59 PM

5.92%chance

181841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

399

25

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

The CCP itself will directly produce and raise children

Aug 20, 8:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.22%chance

251542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1326

872

Which simple games will get their own seasons of Jet Lag before 2027?

Dec 11, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

131148

OptionProbability

Tic Tac Toe

Pong

Ticket To Ride

Scavenger Hunt

Sardines

Snakes and Ladders

Red Rover

Battleships

Cluedo

Monopoly

Hopscotch

Chess

7

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

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