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Prediction markets for Family Matters

Is volcanism caused by dark matter?

Dec 10, 10:10 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

9.46%chance

164448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

950

Will Warren Buffet family's yet-to-be-named ~$127B charitable trust donate to any Effective Altruist orgs prior to 2030?

Jul 2, 9:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

34.79%chance

141630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1809

1260

The CCP itself will directly produce and raise children

Aug 20, 8:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.22%chance

251542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1326

872

Which simple games will get their own seasons of Jet Lag before 2027?

Dec 11, 5:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

191394

OptionProbability

Pong

Ticket To Ride

Sardines

Snakes and Ladders

Red Rover

Battleships

Cluedo

Monopoly

Tic Tac Toe

Hopscotch

Chess

Scavenger Hunt

6

6

5

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

3

2

Will a general-purpose Activation Language Model (ALM) be publicly introduced by end of 2027?

Jul 16, 6:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27%chance

575

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

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