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Prediction markets for FAQs

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.4%chance

471686608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17380

10301

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.25%chance

88143181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106395

18257

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMSep 1, 11:59 PM

11.93%chance

23459582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2327

662

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8%chance

4752333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3139

336

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

79%chance

11128446

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.31%chance

296967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1324

755

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.62%chance

12670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1288

777

Can BCS3-L1 spread from mouth-to-mouth?

Sep 27, 12:28 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.78%chance

15654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

896

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

Nov 18, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.26%chance

19312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

939

If I write an e/acc FAQ, will it be widely shared?

Dec 25, 12:41 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

43.58%chance

551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

129

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