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Prediction markets for FAQs

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.88%chance

505724917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16837

12087

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

84.02%chance

182305903

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110696

29250

Will we conclude Tesla launched level 4 robotaxis in summer 2025?

Apr 25, 8:31 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

17.49%chance

274106999

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1718

765

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.34%chance

4853458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2009

482

Will AI be life-changing for muggles by the end of 2029?

Oct 10, 8:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

86.88%chance

11430322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2576

389

In what specific year will we hit AGI?

Mar 12, 9:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8916359

OptionProbability

2028

2027

2029

2030

2035+

2031

2032

2026

2033

2034

2025

20

16

14

12

12

9

6

4

4

3

0

Will an AI do Magic before EOY 2027? [See description]

Sep 11, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.76%chance

7612702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2229

449

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

399880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2003

501

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?

Jul 18, 7:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.9%chance

13690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

765

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

If I update my Manifold FAQ, will I think it was time well spent a month later?

Nov 18, 5:05 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

50.26%chance

19312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

939

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