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Top stories

US Foreign Policy

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Criticizes U.S. Rejection of Gaza Children, Israeli Cyber Official Arrest, and Israel Lobby Influence in Megyn Kelly Interview

Authors

7

4 months ago

Prediction markets for FARA

Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?

Jan 5, 3:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82.52%chance

242974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2173

460

Will Nigel Farage complete his full term as a Reform Party MP?

Jul 5, 2:54 AMJul 12, 10:59 PM

74.09%chance

261912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

591

Who will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)?

Mar 11, 7:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

121539

OptionProbability

Other

Richard Tice

Zia Yusuf

Danny Kruger

Lee Anderson

Party ceases to exist

James McMurdock

Rupert Lowe

46

12

10

9

8

8

4

2

Nigel Farage becomes UK Prime Minister before 2035?

May 3, 7:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.27%chance

191502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1355

738

Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?

Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

9.25%chance

231486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

912

Does there exist at least 1 pair of humans which can telepathically communicate through a faraday cage?

Mar 27, 6:57 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.98%chance

8890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

434

87

Will Nigel Farage be alive for the next UK general election?

Jun 1, 2:17 AMAug 16, 2:10 AM

95.05%chance

12594

OptionVotes

NO

YES

438

23

Will a party Nigel Farage is a member of win the next UK General Election?

Feb 9, 3:25 AMAug 15, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

14324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

How long before Jackson Hinkle is charged for violating FARA?

Jun 21, 4:50 PMDec 31, 5:48 PM

227

OptionProbability

2028

2025

2026

2027

49

17

17

17

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