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Top stories

US Foreign Policy

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene Criticizes U.S. Rejection of Gaza Children, Israeli Cyber Official Arrest, and Israel Lobby Influence in Megyn Kelly Interview

Authors

7

7 months ago

Prediction markets for FARA

Will Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?

Jan 5, 3:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

273181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2062

485

Will Nigel Farage complete his full term as a Reform Party MP?

Jul 5, 2:54 AMJul 12, 10:59 PM

74.09%chance

261912

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1691

591

Will Nigel Farage become leader of the Conservative Party by 2027?

Oct 27, 2:21 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

7.79%chance

251736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1672

889

Who will be the next permanent leader of Reform UK (after Nigel Farage)?

Mar 11, 7:38 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

141630

OptionProbability

Other

Robert Jenrick

Suella Braverman

Richard Tice

Party ceases to exist

Danny Kruger

Lee Anderson

Zia Yusuf

James McMurdock

Rupert Lowe

27

21

17

7

6

6

5

5

3

2

Nigel Farage becomes UK Prime Minister before 2035?

May 3, 7:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.7%chance

191514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1342

745

Does there exist at least 1 pair of humans which can telepathically communicate through a faraday cage?

Mar 27, 6:57 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.98%chance

8890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

434

87

Will Nigel Farage be alive for the next UK general election?

Jun 1, 2:17 AMAug 16, 2:10 AM

90.1%chance

16640

OptionVotes

NO

YES

302

33

Will a party Nigel Farage is a member of win the next UK General Election?

Feb 9, 3:25 AMAug 15, 10:59 PM

35%chance

16453

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

73

Will Tucker Carlson be arrested in 2026?

Mar 15, 3:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.57%chance

13403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

36

How long before Jackson Hinkle is charged for violating FARA?

Jun 21, 4:50 PMDec 31, 5:48 PM

227

OptionProbability

2028

2025

2026

2027

49

17

17

17

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