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Prediction markets for Fars

Will Manifold agree that Dwarkesh's upcoming guest is "by far [his] biggest yet"? (Resolves to poll)

Aug 22, 4:55 PMAug 20, 6:59 AM

26.13%chance

8412010

OptionVotes

YES

NO

812

118

If a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?

Mar 27, 1:43 PMJul 1, 2:59 AM

66.11%chance

252643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

978

974

Will far-UVC or a successor technology be ubiquitous by 2033?

Sep 29, 1:23 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

20.45%chance

422271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1191

922

Will German far-right party AfD be banned by the German government?

Sep 3, 8:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

15.84%chance

242248

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

433

Will Far-UVC Become a Partisan Issue in the US by 2027?

Mar 14, 9:24 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

14.66%chance

91692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2412

415

Will a precolonial city be found in the Amazon rainforest that is larger than any city found there thus far?

Sep 15, 7:14 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31.97%chance

201084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

686

Will the CDU in eastern german states try to form a government with the far-right AfD after the next election?

Jan 18, 11:03 AMDec 31, 7:25 AM

9.23%chance

7529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

381

93

Will any government in the US/EU/UK/Canada/Australia mandate installing far-UVC lamps in any public space before 2030?

Mar 6, 3:53 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.34%chance

15405

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1105

942

Will Proud Boys, Three Percenters, or members of similar far-right groups kill at least 10 people in the US in 2025?

Nov 7, 9:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.68%chance

9325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1286

778

Assuming the series makes it far enough, will the One Piece live action cast Vin Diesel as Edward "Whitebeard" Newgate?

Sep 12, 4:20 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.19%chance

5190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

282

68

Will ACGIH raise the threshold limit values of the far-UVC (200-230 nm) range again before 2026?

Feb 24, 9:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.02%chance

3146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

75

What % disease reduction will an epidemiological study of far-UVC air disinfection show?

Apr 2, 10:55 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

32.17%chance

138

OptionProbability

NO

YES

288

61

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