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Prediction markets for Fast and Thinking

Who will be the F1 World Champion (WDC) in 2025?

Sep 20, 12:12 PMDec 8, 11:59 PM

10946111

OptionProbability

Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

Lando Norris (McLaren)

Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

George Russell (Mercedes)

Sergio Perez (Red Bull)

Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

Other

74

24

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Are different inertial frames symmetric?

Nov 28, 3:02 PMNov 3, 2:59 PM

14.24%chance

276120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2012

113

"Shangri-La diet" theory becomes widely accepted by scientists before 2030.

Nov 30, 9:36 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.78%chance

193924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

945

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.28%chance

712780

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1737

971

When will be the first year that GDP doubles (i.e., a period of 12 months in which there is 100% growth of global GDP)?

Aug 13, 5:03 PMAug 13, 9:59 PM

38.09%chance

15668

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1286

761

Nate Soares (@so8res) will wager at least 9k in mana (roughly equally distributed) across the following predictions.

May 30, 10:10 AMDec 31, 10:54 AM

9.91%chance

3212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

302

33

What books will I think are the best to recommend to people who want to improve themselves and/or their communities?

Apr 6, 9:53 PMJan 13, 8:00 AM

7171

OptionProbability

Nonviolent Communication, Marshall Rosenberg

Other

The pragmatist guide to live, Malcolm and Simone Collins

How to Actually Change Your Mind, Eliezer Yudkowsky

85

9

5

1

Will "Processor clock speeds are not how fast AIs think" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Mar 2, 4:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

To what extent do professional literary translators (of books such as novels, memoirs, etc...) use machine translation?

Mar 14, 7:46 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50

Suffering and Human Meaning compared to Past (read description)

Apr 13, 6:10 PM

230

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