OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Use sourdough instead of yeast
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Make banana bread
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Add garlic
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
put ketchup and cheese on it
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Add slurs to it
Brush on an egg wash
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Make the bread taste good
Bake for 15 more minutes
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Taste the bread
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Increase water by 50 g
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Replace salt with sugar
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Strawberry jelly filling
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Add caffeine to the bread
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
it needs more salt
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Use lemonade instead of water.
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
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100
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5
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5
5
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3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Cardi B
Green Day
E-40
Daddy Yankee
Fat Joe
Karol G
Ricky Martin
Taylor Swift
Pitbull
J Balvin
No Guest
62
51
45
44
25
22
18
7
6
5
3
OptionProbability
human steps on moon again
trump is impeached by either house OR senate
trump dies
grok 6 release date
Bitcoin reaches 180K usd or more
Earthquake magnitude 8.5 or higher somewhere in the world
Tom Scott's 'this video' reaches 80M views on Youtube
polymarket or kalshi release a credit/debit card
Netanyahu out as PM of israel
Chat GPT 6 releases to the general userbase
playstation 6 announced
manifold launches real money trading
trump bombs / invades / attacks mexican territory
putin or zelensky lose power
windows 12 announcement is made
Saw XI Releases in USA
polymarket or kalshi ipo
haunted chocolatier release date known
GenoSamuel releases Chris Chan History #86
israel opens an embassy in syria, OR announces it will
alan greenspan passes away
stripe ipo happens
apple announces a touchscreen laptop
noam chomsky passes away
onepieceexplained reaches 15k subs on youtube
commercial airline hijacked
discord IPO happens
Kier Starmer out
EOD Boxing Day - Dec 26
spacex IPO happens
undersea cables reported cut around taiwan
Bitcoin reaches 150K usd or more
English Wikipedia reaches 7.2M ARTICLES or more
EOD Thanksgiving - Nov 27
new super smash bros game announced (NOT A REMAKE)
Earthquake magnitude 8.0 or higher somewhere in the world
openai loses another board member, or sam altman no longer ceo
Ukraine and Russia announce any ceasefire
Cy Young award winner announced
Bitcoin reaches 130K usd or more
ozempic/wegovy/glp-1 pill approved by the fda
Last game of the MLB World Series ends
EOD Halloween - Oct 31
Imu face reveal in One Piece manga
another trump assassination attempt
nobel peace prize winner announced
Patriot Games ending day
EOD Lief Erikson Day - Oct 9
Legally Blonde 3 release date announced
manifold raises more money
tropico 7 releases
fable (2026) releases
Ark Survival Evolved 2 releases
Twitter releases a Peer to Peer payment system to free or premium users
twitter/x releases x mail to some users
iphone fold release date known
Bitcoin reaches 125K usd or more
yoko ono passes away
apple announces a smart ring
Prong.Studio releases a 3rd product (not an accessory or part for an existing one)
First game of the MLB World Series starts
new iphone releases (in the USA)
Third dune movie officially announced
fourth Knives Out movie announced
beyonce releases an album
drake releases an album
playboi carti releases an album
Patriot Games starting day
Hades 3 announced (game)
the first Solar eclipse of the year
coup in an african country
the start of Amazon Prime Day(s)
First Apple Event of the year
Manifest 2026 starts
fifa world cup - last game ends
marijuana rescheduled as a drug in the USA
Spacex launches 100th rocket in one year
EOD Fourth of July - Jul 4
the second Atlantic hurricane of the season
the second Pacific hurricane of the season
Spacex launches 75th rocket of the year
Taylor swift gets married
the first Atlantic hurricane of the season
the first Pacific hurricane of the season
EOD Cinco De Mayo - May 5
trump removes a cabinet member
Israel and Hamas announce another temporary ceasefire OR permanent ceasefire OR conflict otherwise ends
Spacex launches 50th rocket of the year
grok 5 release date
llama 5 release date
Last day of the NFL draft
someone reaches 100k traders on the creator leaderboard
First Nintendo direct of the year
the first Lunar eclipse of the year
Spacex launches 25th rocket of the year
EOD Fat Tuesday/Mardi Gras
artemis II mission launches
EOD Ides of March - Mar 15
nioh 3 releases in the usa (game)
doomsday clock announcement made
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38
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34
31
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28
24
24
20
18
14
11
9
7
4
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2285
360
OptionProbability
dexedrine (dextroamphetamine) 5mg
5mg methamphetamine qAM PO
Increasing high quality fat and protein intake; reducing sugar, simple carbs, and grains. [this is not an aim to go into ketosis, no need to be extreme]
Magnesium threonate. 1 capsule in the morning, one before bed. Result- need one less hour of sleep!
Methylphenidate at the correct dose
Eat more complex carbohydrates (chickpea pasta, lentil pasta? - trader joes has some good lentil pasta, and goodles are a decent mac and cheese replacement).
Supplement to ensure adequate vitamin and mineral levels
Chewing nicotine gum while learning new material
Drinking 2-3 cups of coffee daily.
Chewing something like a camel. Try for real
Cold water immersion. (Can be as simple as =>1min in shower under cold water)
modafinil 50 mg 2-3 times per week (lowish dose; could go lower for less effect)
Eat more vegetables
Eat high quality fats
Intermittent fasting with an 8-10 hour feeding window, following the same scheduled hours each day. [even if your schedule is in flux, your fasting/feeding window should remain relatively constant]
Vitamin D3 - 2000 IU daily
Drink enough alcohol to achieve ~0.075 BAC before working on tasks requiring creativity / lateral thinking
77
70
68
64
61
59
53
50
50
50
48
46
42
42
29
28
16
OptionVotes
NO
YES
111
47
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1545
932
OptionVotes
YES
NO
300
33
OptionVotes
NO
YES
157
64
OptionVotes
NO
YES
340
130
OptionVotes
YES
NO
189
125
OptionVotes
YES
NO
110
91
