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Fear News

    Prediction markets for Fear

    Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

    Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    58.98%chance
    25979322

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    9468

    4190

    OptionProbability

    Orality and Literacy by Walter Ong

    The Tale of Genji

    Breakdown in Pakistan: How Aid Is Eroding Institutions for Collective Action

    We Present Television

    The History And Adventures Of An Atom

    The Book of Abraham

    This Is Going To Hurt

    Storm Of Steel

    Lee Kuan Yew’s Memoirs

    The Epic Of Gilgamesh

    The Escape Artist

    A Residence Of 21 Years In The Sandwich Islands

    Thomas Urquhart’s Translation Of Rabelais

    The Ghost In My Brain

    Great And Desperate Cures

    Thomas Urquhart's Translation of Rabelais

    How to Prevent Coups d’État

    Stabilizing an Unstable Economy

    The Last Temptation of Christ

    The Invention of Science: A New History of the Scientific Revolution

    The Rule of Law

    Timefulness

    The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up

    The Cambridge Introduction to Jacques Lacan

    The Knowledge Machine

    The Inhabited Island

    A Secular Age

    Pharmaceutical Freedom: Why Patients Have a Right to Self-Medicate

    Aesopian Language in Russian Literature

    Bellum Catilinae -- The Catiline Conspiracy

    Other

    Coriolanus

    Fear and Trembling

    1984 by George Orwell

    Mother of Learning

    "Mistletoe and Memorandums" by Claude

    The Northern Caves

    planecrash – E.S. Yudwkosky

    World War Z

    The Sovereign Child

    Siddhartha (1922) by Herman Hesse

    The Lever of Riches

    Dictator Book Club: Yoweri Museveni’s Sowing The Mustard Seed

    The End of History and the Last Man

    The Affluent Society by John Kenneth Galbraith

    The Bible

    Invisible Cities / Life: A User's Manual

    We've Had a Hundred Years of Psychotherapy and the World's Getting Worse

    Capitalist Realism

    Leviathan

    The Short, Swift Time of Gods on Earth

    Scenebux: A Novel

    More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite, by Sebastian Mallaby

    12

    9

    7

    7

    6

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

    Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    7.74%chance
    3437152

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    135194

    102092

    Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

    Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
    87.54%chance
    1247563

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2579

    1807

    OptionProbability

    Vivi Ornitier

    Proft's Eidetic Memory

    Screaming Nemesis

    Badgermole Cub

    Agatha's Soul Cauldron

    Fear of Missing Out

    Stock Up

    Enduring Curiosity

    Superior Spider-Man / Kavaero, Mind-Bitten

    Kaito, Bane of Nightmares

    100

    100

    100

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    OptionProbability

    It reaches a stalemate and the south east of Ukraine becomes separate state eventually annexed by russia, Ukraine joins EU and NATO

    Ukraine withstands until europe and the US ramp up production and Russia collapses and fragments like the spanish empire before it.

    Overall escalation continues in flashpoints around the world, nuclear war renders previous options irrelevant (congratulations if you live in the southern hemisphere, you might live to get an anwser correct!)

    The US and europe abandon Ukraine over politics and disagreements, likely NATO and the EU collapse due to folding to military agression

    Russia conquers Ukraine and then the rest of europe as they turn around in fear and cowardice, unwilling to fight

    72

    20

    4

    3

    1

    If I am cryopreserved, why was I not revived?

    Dec 19, 8:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
    13396

    OptionProbability

    Cryopreservation fails to preserve the relevant information at initial preservation attempt

    Cryopreservation organization goes bankrupt or otherwise stops preserving people

    Chemical processes occur in the preservation stage, destroying information

    Humanity goes extinct and in the process the universe enters a state in which I will not be revived

    Restoration is possible in principle and at some point there is the capacity to restore but it isn't attempted for some reason. EG too expensive, it's illegal, etc.

    After you're cryopreserved, there are breakthroughs that provide {much cheaper, more reliable, more efficient}(permute) methods that make cryo not desirable and eventually businesses built around that collapse

    Your brain is intentionally destroyed by someone, some time after preservation, due to fears of it getting captured by misaligned ASI

    86

    86

    64

    49

    40

    35

    10

    OptionProbability

    YES

    NO

    372

    306

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    1027

    849

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