Fear News

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

25072880

OptionVotes

YES

7852

5623

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

33264

2509

Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest?

Jun 4, 5:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2027967

OptionProbability

Other

The Book of Abraham

The Short, Swift Time of Gods on Earth

Orality and Literacy by Walter Ong

We Present Television

Siddhartha (1922) by Herman Hesse

The Lever of Riches

The Sovereign Child

Capitalist Realism

The Tale of Genji

planecrash – E.S. Yudwkosky

Thomas Urquhart's Translation of Rabelais

The Life-Changing Magic of Tidying Up

The Cambridge Introduction to Jacques Lacan

Breakdown in Pakistan: How Aid Is Eroding Institutions for Collective Action

World War Z

Lee Kuan Yew’s Memoirs

The Affluent Society by John Kenneth Galbraith

Invisible Cities / Life: A User's Manual

We've Had a Hundred Years of Psychotherapy and the World's Getting Worse

Leviathan

How to Prevent Coups d’État

Stabilizing an Unstable Economy

The Invention of Science: A New History of the Scientific Revolution

The Rule of Law

Timefulness

The Knowledge Machine

The Inhabited Island

The Ghost In My Brain

A Secular Age

Scenebux: A Novel

Pharmaceutical Freedom: Why Patients Have a Right to Self-Medicate

Aesopian Language in Russian Literature

Bellum Catilinae -- The Catiline Conspiracy

Coriolanus

Fear and Trembling

1984 by George Orwell

Mother of Learning

"Mistletoe and Memorandums" by Claude

The Northern Caves

Dictator Book Club: Yoweri Museveni’s Sowing The Mustard Seed

The End of History and the Last Man

The Bible

The Last Temptation of Christ

More Money Than God: Hedge Funds and the Making of a New Elite, by Sebastian Mallaby

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.68%chance

2910468

OptionVotes

YES

108509

104617

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

87.28%chance

1237513

OptionVotes

YES

2529

1814

Will there be geopolitical instability over fears of other countries reaching superintelligence? (ACX, AI 2027 #2)

Apr 8, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.01%chance

164066

OptionVotes

YES

1175

851

Which MTG cards will be banned from standard before the next early rotation window?

Aug 14, 6:05 PMJun 30, 5:54 PM

81905

OptionProbability

Vivi Ornitier

Proft's Eidetic Memory

Screaming Nemesis

Badgermole Cub

Agatha's Soul Cauldron

Fear of Missing Out

Stock Up

Enduring Curiosity

Superior Spider-Man / Kavaero, Mind-Bitten

Kaito, Bane of Nightmares

100

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

Dec 20, 1:43 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

18956

OptionProbability

It reaches a stalemate and the south east of Ukraine becomes separate state eventually annexed by russia, Ukraine joins EU and NATO

Ukraine withstands until europe and the US ramp up production and Russia collapses and fragments like the spanish empire before it.

Overall escalation continues in flashpoints around the world, nuclear war renders previous options irrelevant (congratulations if you live in the southern hemisphere, you might live to get an anwser correct!)

The US and europe abandon Ukraine over politics and disagreements, likely NATO and the EU collapse due to folding to military agression

Russia conquers Ukraine and then the rest of europe as they turn around in fear and cowardice, unwilling to fight

If I am cryopreserved, why was I not revived?

Dec 19, 8:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13396

OptionProbability

Cryopreservation fails to preserve the relevant information at initial preservation attempt

Cryopreservation organization goes bankrupt or otherwise stops preserving people

Chemical processes occur in the preservation stage, destroying information

Humanity goes extinct and in the process the universe enters a state in which I will not be revived

Restoration is possible in principle and at some point there is the capacity to restore but it isn't attempted for some reason. EG too expensive, it's illegal, etc.

After you're cryopreserved, there are breakthroughs that provide {much cheaper, more reliable, more efficient}(permute) methods that make cryo not desirable and eventually businesses built around that collapse

Your brain is intentionally destroyed by someone, some time after preservation, due to fears of it getting captured by misaligned ASI

How many months until the first human commits suicide due to fears from AI?

May 27, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.01%chance

5108

OptionProbability

YES

372

306

Should we fear the reaper?

Jan 9, 4:41 AM

220

I'm starting to fear the super AI network, are you ?

Jan 17, 1:33 PM

1100

Fear News

Prediction markets for Fear

Prediction markets for Fear

Prediction markets for Fear

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest?

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?

Will there be geopolitical instability over fears of other countries reaching superintelligence? (ACX, AI 2027 #2)

Which MTG cards will be banned from standard before the next early rotation window?

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

If I am cryopreserved, why was I not revived?

How many months until the first human commits suicide due to fears from AI?

Should we fear the reaper?

I'm starting to fear the super AI network, are you ?

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