Fear News
Prediction markets for Fear
Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?
Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
58.98%chance
25979322
OptionVotes
9468
4190
OptionProbability
12
9
7
7
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?
Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
7.74%chance
3437152
OptionVotes
135194
102092
Will anyone commit suicide due to fears of anti-aligned AI before 2030?
Mar 25, 3:29 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM
87.54%chance
1247563
OptionVotes
2579
1807
Will there be geopolitical instability over fears of other countries reaching superintelligence? (ACX, AI 2027 #2)
Apr 8, 7:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
42.01%chance
164066
OptionVotes
1175
851
Which MTG cards will be banned from standard before the next early rotation window?
Aug 14, 6:05 PMAug 10, 5:54 PM
92023
OptionProbability
100
100
100
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027
Dec 20, 1:43 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
19961
OptionProbability
72
20
4
3
1
OptionProbability
86
86
64
49
40
35
10
How many months until the first human commits suicide due to fears from AI?
May 27, 11:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
5.01%chance
5108
OptionProbability
372
306
Will "(Don't fear) the strangelet" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 5, 5:49 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
16.46%chance
385
OptionVotes
1027
849

