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Prediction markets for Feather

Will GPT-5 be able to accurately compare weights of lead and feathers?

Mar 23, 6:05 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

95.67%chance

299699

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2351

869

Will the Common Ostrich (Struthio camelus) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 28, 9:24 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.1%chance

61949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2428

318

Will cybernetic body modification technologies become commonplace in developed countries by 2077?

Dec 21, 10:38 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

78.59%chance

27827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1213

908

What will Granfran and Galieber's house in Breckenridge be named?

Mar 25, 8:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10637

OptionProbability

Breckenhaus

Breckaplex

Breckenmortar

Red Nest

Fruella de Villa

Breckabin

Skiboot-a-terre

Red Rooster

Casabrecka

Breckenball

Fort Buttress the Butt Fortress

Breckabode

Red Feather (the street name)

Big Breck Frandy Mountain House

The G-Spot

The Handsome Hiney House

The Rowdy Rationalussy Residence

Other

Bunkenridge

Brecklamation

Galfransisco

The Roost

20

15

10

9

8

8

6

6

5

4

4

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will "Zootopia 3" be released by the end of 2030?

Dec 2, 6:07 AMDec 31, 11:58 PM

56.94%chance

9199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

87

Will my African Grey Parrot be alive at the beginning of 2030?

Oct 4, 4:13 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

85.06%chance

8168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

330

120

Will SCOTUS strike down California's Ebony Alert law by 2030?

Feb 17, 10:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.3%chance

290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

38

Will a visible “chemtrail” be captured by a UW–Madison rooftop camera between 9 AM and 1 PM CT on October 1st, 2026?

Sep 24, 2:09 AMOct 1, 1:00 PM

33.38%chance

241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

Did you get the "Which is heavier: 20 pounds of bricks or 20 feathers?" question right on the first try?

May 31, 9:08 PM

340

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