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Prediction markets for February

Will the US strike Iran by the end of February?

Jan 29, 11:08 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

28%chance

41362410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

841

244

Best AI time horizon by February 2026, per METR?

Apr 13, 1:30 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

7858601

OptionProbability

6 to 8 hours

8 to 16 hours

>=16 hours

4 to 6 hours

<2 hours

2 to 4 hours

48

40

10

1

0

0

Will I get banned for using my newly created $100 Claude Max subscription on ClawdBot by February 15th?

Jan 25, 11:50 PMFeb 15, 11:59 PM

7.45%chance

9654004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

32218

1729

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

20.63%chance

7944509

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11563

6673

Will OpenAI release a model named GPT 5.3 by the end of February?

Jan 30, 5:29 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

58.14%chance

14734288

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1179

849

Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?

Jan 8, 2:44 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

61.49%chance

2133381

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12451

8103

ICE kills another US citizen by end of February 2026

Jan 28, 10:13 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

19%chance

25029032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1945

522

Will a clawdbot have been proven to have exfiltrated without help from its human to another host by end of February 2026

Feb 1, 4:55 PMMar 3, 11:59 PM

50.41%chance

343035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

992

Another US government shutdown before February 14?

Feb 6, 6:16 AMFeb 15, 4:59 AM

61.07%chance

15968

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1252

798

On March 16, 2026, will Meta Platforms’ stock price be lower than on February 17, 2026?

Feb 7, 1:37 PMFeb 17, 8:00 AM

47.56%chance

7301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will Amazon’s stock price on March 09, 2026 be lower than its price on February 10, 2026?

Feb 7, 1:36 PMFeb 10, 8:00 AM

52.09%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

959

Will Jimmy Fallon make a metacomment about his “stockbroker spooning with Zohran Mamdani” joke again by end of February?

Jan 24, 7:17 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

49.33%chance

665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

987

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