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Prediction markets for Fed

Will the fed funds rate be below 4% at anytime by the end of 2026?

Oct 17, 11:18 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

98.79%chance

2863602

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11829

384

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

18.29%chance

4610088

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1576

823

Will the Fed be abolished during Trump's term?

Nov 14, 9:57 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

3.91%chance

259052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4956

202

Next Fed chair to have a degree in economics?

Apr 18, 12:20 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM

2.61%chance

237768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

24

How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Nov 1, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

146913

OptionProbability

2 cuts (Target 3.00-3.25)

1 cut (Target 3.25-3.50)

3 cuts (Target 2.75-3.00)

4 cuts (Target 2.50-2.75)

0 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

Other

31

27

23

8

6

5

Will Nick Fuentes be revealed to be a Fed before 2040?

Feb 19, 4:04 AMJan 16, 6:59 AM

23%chance

213120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1315

873

Fed decision in April?

Dec 11, 9:03 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

82887

OptionProbability

No change

25 bps decrease

50+ bps decrease

25+ bps increase

75

20

3

2

Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?

Jan 7, 4:06 PMDec 10, 7:00 PM

65.4%chance

181943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

549

Will the US Fed Funds rate in 10 years be higher than 4%?

May 24, 5:51 AMMay 24, 6:59 AM

45%chance

13634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

210

141

Trump creates and appoints a shadow Fed chair?

Apr 22, 11:07 AMMay 30, 10:59 PM

16.95%chance

10375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

582

569

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMDec 31, 1:18 AM

9.97%chance

10312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

933

Powell resigns if not re-appointed Fed chair?

Sep 18, 7:55 PMJun 15, 2:49 PM

43.64%chance

9187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

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