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Prediction markets for Fed

Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.84%chance

5010342

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1779

781

How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Nov 1, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2310114

OptionProbability

Other

0 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

1 cut (Target 3.25-3.50)

2 cuts (Target 3.00-3.25)

3 cuts (Target 2.75-3.00)

4 cuts (Target 2.50-2.75)

52

37

6

2

1

1

Will Fed (Kevin Warsh) cut interest rates by July 2026?

Jun 9, 9:55 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.61%chance

259809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

782

13

Will the Fed be abolished during Trump's term?

Nov 14, 9:57 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

3.84%chance

269102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5006

200

Will Polymarket be right about every Fed decision in 2026?

Jan 7, 4:06 PMDec 10, 7:00 PM

85.87%chance

274297

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1397

920

Will Nick Fuentes be revealed to be a Fed before 2040?

Feb 19, 4:04 AMJan 16, 6:59 AM

47.65%chance

233976

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

610

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Dec 11, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

102171

OptionProbability

0 (0 bps)

1 (25 bps)

2 (50 bps)

3 (75 bps)

4 (100 bps)

5 - 6 (125 bps - 150 bps)

7 - 8 (175 bps - 200 bps)

9 - 10 (225 bps - 250 bps)

11 - 12 (275 bps - 300 bps)

82

7

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMNov 23, 1:18 AM

5.97%chance

121065

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1954

871

2026 rate hike parlay (Fed + ECB + BOJ + BOE + PBC)

May 25, 10:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.71%chance

111052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1794

558

Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 18, 12:02 AMJul 29, 6:25 PM

4.84%chance

8689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

461

29

Will the Fed cut the federal funds rate at its July 2026 FOMC meeting?

Jun 14, 12:30 PMJul 30, 11:59 PM

2.23%chance

6681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

712

57

Are the “Patriot Front” marchers >20% feds?

May 16, 9:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.79%chance

13449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

964

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