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Top stories

DOE Orders PJM to Keep Eddystone Units Online Until Nov. 26

US Domestic Policy

DOE Orders PJM to Keep Eddystone Units Online Until Nov. 26

Authors

4

8 months ago

Prediction markets for Federal Power Act

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

Will Alberta leave Canada?

Dec 24, 1:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

104886

OptionProbability

Won’t leave before 2030

2029

2025

2026

2027

2028

95

2

1

1

1

1

Trump orders active duty military to NYC by end of 2026?

Nov 5, 11:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.86%chance

113953

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Will Trump declare federal Martial Law in the US before 2029 (given a 2025 presidency)?

Feb 4, 10:45 PMFeb 1, 10:59 AM

26.44%chance

403128

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

111

Will the US undergo a major political crisis before 2027

Jul 4, 6:28 AMJan 11, 7:59 AM

54.41%chance

15571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?

Nov 15, 1:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.63%chance

14332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

459

324

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Federal court rules on War Powers Act constitutionality by July 2026?

Jun 24, 8:40 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

10.95%chance

9237

OptionVotes

YES

NO

285

35

How will SCOTUS rule in Trump v Cook?

Jan 22, 5:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6198

OptionProbability

7-2

8-1

9-0

6-3

5-4

Other

32

26

16

10

9

8

Will there be a military draft in the United States during Trump's second term, authorized by Congress?

Mar 13, 11:09 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

7.24%chance

4111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

688

Prediction markets legalized in India by 2035?

Dec 22, 7:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.62%chance

5109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

What will happen to the Marineland Beluga whales?

Oct 14, 1:41 PMOct 15, 1:29 PM

215

OptionProbability

Euthanized

Moved to a sanctuary

Introduced to the wild

Sold/given to a park

38

26

18

18

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