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Prediction markets for Federal Register

When will a US government AI run overtake private AI compute by FLOP?

Jun 5, 2:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

353086

OptionProbability

<2035

<2030

<2029

>=2035

<2028

<2027

<2026

62

50

47

38

32

19

10

Trump will sign yet another executive order that mentions "Bitcoin" in 2025

Mar 7, 6:26 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

71.74%chance

241928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1593

628

Trump executive orders in first year: number

Mar 19, 6:46 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5544

Eric Adams runs as Republican in 2025 New York mayoral election?

Jun 27, 7:18 AMNov 4, 11:59 PM

4.46%chance

11517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

463

22

Will the H-1B visa cap increase by at least 50% or be removed before Fiscal Year 2027?

Jun 17, 10:04 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

13.59%chance

6110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

470

335

Will Yulia Navalnaya run for President of Russia before 2030?

Oct 21, 8:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.22%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

205

49

Will the US Government create a public-private partnership with OpenAI by 2028?

May 24, 4:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.4%chance

350

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

88

24 months after Cannabis is rescheduled will the medical community develop an effective CHS diagnostic tests?

May 15, 5:02 AMApr 20, 9:20 PM

62.5%chance

130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

77

FDA Oversight of laboratory tests will be substantially approved by mid 2026

Dec 4, 10:56 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

56.66%chance

213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

77

64

Enemy-Combatant Detention of a U.S. Citizen by 31 Dec 2025?

Jun 18, 2:28 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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