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Prediction markets for Federal Reserve

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.52%chance

282643519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29227

5465

Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September 2025?

Jul 15, 7:53 PMSep 15, 11:59 PM

87.27%chance

429426

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2618

382

Will Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell still be the Fed Chair on August 16, 2025?

Jul 19, 3:22 AMAug 16, 12:00 AM

97.79%chance

167028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

664

15

Federal Reserve upper bound at least 5.00% on December 31?

Apr 23, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.02%chance

93738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4349

230

Will Trump be able to force Jerome Powell to leave or resign from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Apr 17, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

10.08%chance

291677

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

33

Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Feb 2, 3:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

161535

OptionProbability

Chris Waller

Kevin Warsh

Stephen Miran

Kevin Hassett

Judy Shelton

Other

Scott Bessent

Arthur Laffer

Larry Kudlow

Mary Daly

Austan Goolsbee

Susan Collins

Lisa Cook

Jim Cramer

Andrew Hussie

23

18

18

14

11

5

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will Jerome Powell be appointed to a third term as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Aug 19, 10:00 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

2.15%chance

18914

OptionVotes

YES

NO

675

15

Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve?

Apr 10, 3:10 PMApr 1, 2:59 AM

3.67%chance

16841

OptionVotes

YES

NO

695

31

Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.

Nov 11, 3:49 PMFeb 19, 6:59 AM

46.69%chance

18769

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

94

Will the Federal Reserve end quantitative tightening in 2025?

May 22, 4:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.61%chance

5415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1384

727

Will the Federal Reserve adjust the 2% long run inflation target by 2028?

Jun 29, 1:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.89%chance

9292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

413

126

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028?

Jun 26, 5:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.96%chance

7200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

247

40

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