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Federal Reserve News

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.15%chance

316855132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119785

2471

Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision in December

Sep 3, 9:51 PMDec 10, 7:00 PM

158103940

OptionProbability

25 bps decrease

No change

Increase

50+ bps decrease

94

6

0

0

How many net rate cuts will the Fed (Federal Reserve) do in 2025?

Jan 6, 6:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6656925

OptionProbability

3 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

2 cuts (Target 3.75-4.00)

0 cuts (Target 4.25-4.50 or higher)

1 cuts (Target 4.00-4.25)

4 cuts or more (Target 3.25-3.50 or lower)

93

7

0

0

0

Who will be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Feb 2, 3:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

216831

OptionProbability

Kevin Hassett

Chris Waller

Kevin Warsh

Other

Scott Bessent

Stephen Miran

Larry Kudlow

Judy Shelton

Jim Cramer

Janet Yellen

Mary Daly

Austan Goolsbee

Susan Collins

Lisa Cook

Arthur Laffer

Andrew Hussie

76

6

5

4

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Federal Reserve upper bound at least 5.00% on December 31?

Apr 23, 2:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.39%chance

104728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5339

187

Will Trump be able to force Jerome Powell to leave or resign from his position as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Apr 17, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

1.78%chance

322312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

743

13

Will the Federal Reserve exist and retain it's current level of independence by the end of Trump's term.

Nov 11, 3:49 PMFeb 19, 6:59 AM

31.85%chance

211041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

68

Will Jerome Powell be appointed to a third term as Chair of the Federal Reserve?

Aug 19, 10:00 PMJun 1, 3:59 AM

4.02%chance

20974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

489

20

Will Jerome Powell get a third consecutive term as chair of the Federal Reserve?

Apr 10, 3:10 PMApr 1, 2:59 AM

4.52%chance

19954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

618

35

Will the Federal Reserve adjust the 2% long run inflation target by 2028?

Jun 29, 1:17 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

16.89%chance

9292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

413

126

Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates before 2028?

Jun 26, 5:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.96%chance

7200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

247

40

Federal Reserve announces wholesale CBDC pilot before 2028?

Jun 10, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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