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Prediction markets for Federal
Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?
Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
352484200
OptionProbability
49
37
13
1
0
0
0
0
If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?
Mar 10, 5:12 AMNov 3, 7:59 AM
36.63%chance
203111452
OptionVotes
7003
5981
Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?
Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM
5174334
OptionProbability
56
16
0
0
0
Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?
Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
47.05%chance
25072880
OptionVotes
7852
5623
Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?
May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM
9.23%chance
11644350
OptionVotes
31394
3191
Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?
Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM
14.68%chance
8836202
OptionVotes
10857
1831
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
51.05%chance
4410157
OptionVotes
10938
8979
[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
33.21%chance
388547
OptionVotes
5184
5054
Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?
Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM
38.42%chance
227750
OptionVotes
12660
7899
Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?
Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM
46.65%chance
305793
OptionVotes
10030
9956
Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?
Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM
58.12%chance
113096
OptionVotes
2211
1833
Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?
Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
52.62%chance
9702
OptionVotes
10538
9489