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Top stories

National Aviation Day 2025 Marks Orville Wright’s Birthday, NASA X-59, $12.5B FAA ATC Modernization, and Long Beach Airport Grant

National Aviation Day 2025 Marks Orville Wright’s Birthday, NASA X-59, $12.5B FAA ATC Modernization, and Long Beach Airport Grant

Authors

21

4 months ago

Prediction markets for Federal

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.15%chance

316855132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119785

2471

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

239344718

OptionProbability

R President, R Senate, D House

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

55

28

16

1

0

0

0

0

Will US federal interest rates at the end of 2025 be lower than at the end of 2024?

Jan 22, 3:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

99.01%chance

38131073

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129586

2189

Elon Musk charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 12:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.99%chance

5766235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58958

5398

If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:12 AMNov 3, 7:59 AM

21.55%chance

11749082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9837

5474

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

10.14%chance

11337948

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29769

3359

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.25%chance

4033292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

39230

3870

Salary withheld for 5000 full time US federal government employees on or before December 31, 2025

Feb 2, 8:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.08%chance

1817139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24776

2392

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

53.7%chance

429653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11488

8479

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

39.19%chance

207525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12457

8028

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

45.27%chance

171797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10257

9774

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

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