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Top stories

National Aviation Day 2025 Marks Orville Wright’s Birthday, NASA X-59, $12.5B FAA ATC Modernization, and Long Beach Airport Grant

National Aviation Day 2025 Marks Orville Wright’s Birthday, NASA X-59, $12.5B FAA ATC Modernization, and Long Beach Airport Grant

Authors

21

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Federal

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.87%chance

294110933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11390

5011

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5380630

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

34

6

0

0

0

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

2.79%chance

9658132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

26360

741

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

8.4%chance

11746291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33053

3031

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

18.26%chance

5522494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

20673

5320

Will the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?

Aug 18, 12:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

76.35%chance

9219942

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1800

587

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.57%chance

5212004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8319

3970

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

4.36%chance

2811598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8972

356

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.56%chance

237773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12623

7922

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will Nintendo take legal action against the US federal government?

Nov 5, 9:49 PMDec 31, 9:28 PM

27.98%chance

11330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1092

703

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