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Top stories

National Aviation Day 2025 Marks Orville Wright’s Birthday, NASA X-59, $12.5B FAA ATC Modernization, and Long Beach Airport Grant

National Aviation Day 2025 Marks Orville Wright’s Birthday, NASA X-59, $12.5B FAA ATC Modernization, and Long Beach Airport Grant

Authors

21

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Federal

Balance of Power: Who will control the government after the 2026 US federal elections?

Sep 19, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

364508001

OptionProbability

R Pres, D Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, D House

R President, R Senate, R House - Republican Trifecta

R President, D Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, D House - Democrat Trifecta

D President, R Senate, R House

D President, D Senate, R House

D President, R Senate, D House

58

34

7

1

0

0

0

0

If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:12 AMNov 3, 7:59 AM

11.56%chance

219124832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16183

4284

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.16%chance

26682672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8636

4842

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

Nov 7, 7:29 PMJan 21, 2:59 AM

5379100

OptionProbability

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)

January 20, 2026 (First year)

January 20, 2025 (Inauguration Day)

February 20, 2025 (First month)

April 29, 2025 (First 100 days)

49

5

0

0

0

Alcatraz holds ten federal inmates for one week before January 20, 2029?

May 4, 11:58 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

9.14%chance

11744791

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31553

3175

Will the farm bill (HR 7567) pass and destroy / federally preempt state animal welfare laws?

Apr 29, 12:45 AMJan 14, 12:59 AM

16.18%chance

9340009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10258

1941

Will there be any significant legislation or executive orders cancelling vote-by-mail in the 2026 federal elections?

Feb 21, 2:05 AMJan 4, 7:59 AM

35.78%chance

4912818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12673

8134

Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?

Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM

51.05%chance

4410157

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10938

8979

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.23%chance

489899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6256

4591

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

5.02%chance

199687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8375

385

Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?

Apr 28, 7:29 PMApr 29, 7:28 PM

38.42%chance

227750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12660

7899

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

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