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Fellowship News

Will anyone from the Summer Program for Applied Rationality (SPARC) program win a Thiel Fellowship by 2026?

Apr 20, 10:54 PMApr 28, 6:59 AM

81.46%chance

101444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

97

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will anyone from https://www.livetheresidency.com/ win the Thiel Fellowship in 2026?

Jun 21, 2:24 AMMay 1, 6:59 AM

52.59%chance

466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Will Arnav Shah win EITHER an Emergent Ventures or Thiel Fellowship by 2028?

Apr 21, 10:24 AMApr 29, 6:59 AM

35.17%chance

550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

88

Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 10:44 PMNov 1, 8:01 AM

32.43%chance

329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

95

Will Jaival Patel win a Thiel Fellowship, Emergent Ventures, Brains Fellows, or Flux Capacitor funding by 2030?

Jun 10, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will James Lin (@jlinbio) from Toronto win a Thiel Fellowship?

Jan 1, 5:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

86

Will someone from the hacker house calculus.house win a thiel fellowship by EOY2027?

Jun 11, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will yoyo @indiraschka win an emergent ventures fellowship

Jul 24, 4:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.73%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

94

Will Willy Chertman win an Emergent Ventures fellowship before 2027?

Apr 20, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.04%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52

48

Will at least 50 percent of the inaugural thiel fellowship cohort get married by EOY 2027

Dec 17, 12:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Will any of the 2016 Pareto Fellows end up with a MacArthur Fellowship by EOY 2040?

Aug 28, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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