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Prediction markets for Fellowship

Will anyone from the Summer Program for Applied Rationality (SPARC) program win a Thiel Fellowship by 2026?

Apr 20, 10:54 PMApr 28, 6:59 AM

81.46%chance

101444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

97

Federal government fellowship approximating discontinued PMF program opens applications by EOY2030?

Apr 20, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.62%chance

9702

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10538

9489

Will @sanjehorah win an emergent ventures fellowship by EOY2028?

Dec 25, 8:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

1102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Is the thiel fellowship the most beautiful thing in the world?

Jan 24, 4:33 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.55%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

81

Will anyone from https://www.livetheresidency.com/ win the Thiel Fellowship in 2026?

Jun 21, 2:24 AMMay 1, 6:59 AM

52.59%chance

466

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 10:44 PMNov 1, 8:01 AM

32.43%chance

329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

95

Will James Lin (@jlinbio) from Toronto win a Thiel Fellowship?

Jan 1, 5:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

44.8%chance

315

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

86

Will yoyo @indiraschka win an emergent ventures fellowship

Jul 24, 4:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.73%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

94

Will Theodore Weld Smith of moda fund win a Thiel Fellowship

Apr 25, 4:59 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

25.67%chance

26

OptionVotes

NO

YES

75

54

Will Willy Chertman win an Emergent Ventures fellowship before 2027?

Apr 20, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.04%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52

48

Will at least 50 percent of the inaugural thiel fellowship cohort get married by EOY 2027

Dec 17, 12:04 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

50

50

Will any of the 2016 Pareto Fellows end up with a MacArthur Fellowship by EOY 2040?

Aug 28, 11:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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