OptionProbability
(JAP) Red flag during Qualyfing session
[BAH] Safety car during the race
[BAH] Yuki Tsunoda scores points
[BAH] Bearman scores points
[SAU] Safety Car during the race
[SAU] Tsunoda makes it into Q3
[SAU] Leclerc will get top 4 in the race
[MIA] Norris qualifies ahead of Piastri (main race qualifying)
[MIA] Non-Mclaren pole in Sprint Qualifying
[MIA] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris in GP
[MIA] Williams double points in the main GP
[MIA] Over 3.5 Drivers DNF in the main race
[MIA] Both McLaren on the podium
[IMO] Physical Safety Car during the race
[IMO] Max Verstappen Podium Finish
[IMO] Colapinto replaces Doohan in at least one session
[IMO] Piastri qualifies ahead of Norris
[IMO] Tsunoda scores point(s)
[MON] Red Flag during Qualifying
[MON] Pole Sitter wins the race
[MON] At least one impeding penalty during qualifying
[MON] 4+ pit stops in the first 5 laps
[MON] Norris scores more points than Piastri
[MON] Yellow flag on the 1st lap of the race
[MON] Both Ferraris finish in top 5
[SPA] Both Ferraris reach Q3
[SPA] McLaren Pole Position
[SPA] McLaren 1-2 (race)
[CAN] Physical Safety Car during the race
[CAN] Red Flag during Qualifying
[CAN] Stroll starts the race
[CAN] Impeding penalty during Qualifying (at least 1)
[CAN] Mercedes Podium
[CAN] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10
[CAN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[AUT] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AUT] Yellow flag first lap
[AUT] Bortoleto reaches Q3
[AUT] McLaren 1-2
[AUT] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[AUT] Bortoleto finishes top 10
[GBR] Yellow Flag first lap
[GBR] Physical Safety Car during the race
[GBR] McLaren 1-2 (race)
[GBR] Non-McLaren pole position
[GBR] VSR virtual safety car during the race.
[GBR] Gasly finishes in top 10
[BEL] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[BEL] McLaren double podium (main race)
[BEL] Intermediate or wet weather tyres needed for the main race
[BEL] A Ferrari driver doesn't reach Q3 (main race qualifying)
[BEL] Bortoleto reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[BEL] Leclerc podium (main race)
[BEL] Bortoleto in the top 10 (main race)
[BEL] Hamilton top 10 (main race)
[HUN] McLaren 1-2 in the race
[HUN] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton in the race
[HUN] Antonelli finishes in the points
[HUN] Bortoleto finishes in the points
[HUN] Both Aston Martins score points
[HUN] Leclerc is in first position at the end of lap 1
[NLD] Physical Safety Car during the race
[NLD] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[NLD] Verstappen on the podium
[NLD] Tsunoda finishes in top 10
[ITA] New track record Set in Qualifying
[ITA] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[ITA] Non-McLaren pole position
[ITA] Hamilton finishes in top 6
[AZE] Physical Safety Car during the race
[AZE] Red flag during qualifying
[AZE] Yellow flag First Lap main race
[AZE] Norris and or Piastri Fail to finish due to an accident
[AZE] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[AZE] Non-McLaren pole position
[AZE] Mercedes on the podium (at least 1 driver)
[SGP] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[SGP] Bearman finishes in top 10 (race)
[COTA] Yellow flag first lap (main race)
[COTA] Physical Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car during the main race
[COTA] Verstappen wins the sprint race
[COTA] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (main race)
[COTA] Leclerc finishes on the podium (main race)
[COTA] Bearman finishes in top 10 (main race)
[COTA] Hulkenberg finishes on top 10 (main race)
[MEX] all 3 tyre compounds used in main race
[MEX] Bearman finishes in top 10 (race)
[MEX] At least one Ferrari on the podium
[MEX] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[MEX] Max finishes 3rd
[BRA] Physical Safety Car during the main race
[BRA] yellow flag first lap (main race)
[BRA] The same driver wins the Sprint and the GP
[BRA] McLaren pole in the SPRINT qualifying
[BRA] Antonelli Sprint podium
[BRA] Verstappen finishes the main race in the top 6
[BRA] Antonelli podium in the main race
[BRA] Both Racing Bulls finish in top 10 in the main race
[LAS]Verstappen finishes ahead of both McLarens
[LAS] Yellow flag first lap
[LAS] All 3 tyre compounds used in main race
[LAS] Sainz finishes in top 5 (race)
[LAS] Hulkenberg finishes in top 10 (race)
[QAT] Verstappen scores more points than Norris during the whole weekend
[QAT] Alonso scores points in the sprint race
[QAT] Alonso in top 10 (main race)
[ABU] NON-McLaren pole position
[ABU] A Ferrari doesn't reach Q3
[ABU] Physical Safety Car during the race
[ABU] All 3 tyre compounds used in main race
Leave it open for upcoming GP
[ABU] Yellow flag first lap
[ABU] A driver not in WDC contention podiums
[MIA] Safety car in the main race
[ABU] Three different teams on the podium
[ABU] Verstappen, Piastri or Norris is involved in a collision causing him to DNF (engine, power unit problems etc. do not count)
[BEL] Yellow flag first lap (main race)
[ABU] A driver not in WDC contention wins the race
(JAP) Safety car during the race
(JAP) A rookie crashes and cannot finish the race (technical problems at the gearbox, power unit etc. won't count, it needs to be a crash)
(JAP) Yuki Tsunoda scores points
[JAP] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda
[BAH] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda
[BAH] Ferrari on the podium (at least 1 driver)
[SAU] Mercedes podium (at least 1 driver)
[SAU] McLaren double podium
[SAU] Bearman scores points
[MIA] 🇮🇹 Kimi Antonelli wins the sprint race
[MIA] 🟥 Red flag during main race qualifying
[MIA] Antonelli on the Podium
[IMO] Piastri scores more points than Norris
[IMO] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton (race)
[IMO] Aston Martin both drivers score points
[MON] Physical Safety Car during the race
[MON] Both Mercedes score points (i.e. top 10)
[SPA] Virtual Safety Car during the race
[SPA] Yellow flag first lap
[SPA] Tsunoda goes into Q3
[SPA] Sauber reaches Q3 (at least one driver)
[SPA] someone receives a penalty for obstructing during qualifying
[SPA] Tsunoda finishes in top 10 (race)
[SPA] Hamilton finishes ahead of Leclerc (race)
[SPA] Bortoleto finishes in top 10 (race)
[CAN] Yellow flag first lap
[CAN] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[CAN] Both Williams reach Q3
[CAN] Williams scores over 5.5 WCC points
[AUT] 3 different teams on the podium
[AUT] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[AUT] Stroll reaches Q3
[AUT] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[AUT] Williams scores points (at least one driver)
[AUT] Verstappen penalty for forcing another driver off the track or a collision.
[GBR] Both HAAS cars finish in the points (top 10)
[GBR] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[GBR] Williams reaches Q3 (at least 1 driver)
[GBR] At least one Ferrari on the podium
[GBR] Bearman finishes in top 10
[GBR] At least one Mercedes on the podium
[BEL] Two or more cars DNF (main race)
[BEL] Ferrari in top 3 in the Sprint Qualifying (at least 1 driver)
[BEL] McLaren 1-2 in the Sprint race
[BEL] Verstappen gets a penalty in either the sprint or main race
[BEL] Leclerc on the podium in the sprint race
[BEL] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)
[BEL] main race is cancelled/aborted
[HUN] Physical Safety Car during the race
[HUN] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)
[HUN] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[HUN] Yellow flag first lap
[HUN] At least two drivers DNF
[NLD] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)
[NLD] Exactly 18 cars finish the race
Hamilton finishes in top 7
[NLD] Yellow flag first lap
[NLD] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race
[NLD] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[NLD] Antonelli reaches Q3
[NLD] Both Williams reach Q3
[NLD] Red flag during qualifying
[ITA] Physical Safety during the race
[ITA] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least one)
[ITA] Yellow flag first lap
[ITA] Wet or intermediate tyres needed in Race
[ITA] Both Williams reach Q3
[ITA] Ferrari on the podium (at least one driver)
[AZE] New lap record in Qualifying
[AZE] Leclerc finishes ahead of Hamilton
[AZE] 3 or more DNF (race)
[AZE] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the race.
[SGP] Physical Safety Car during the race
[SGP] Red flag during qualifying
[SGP] Yellow flag first lap
[SGP] 1 or more teams loses both cars in the race
[SGP] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race
[SGP] Impeding penalty during qualifying (at least 1)
[SGP] Tsunoda reaches Q3
[SGP] Antonelli on the podium
[SGP] Kick Sauber scores points
[COTA] McLaren pole position in the SPRINT qualifying
[COTA] Hulkenberg top 5 in the sprint race
[COTA] Tsunoda reaches Q3 (main race qualifying)
[COTA] McLaren pole position in the main race qualifying
[COTA] A Ferrari doesn't reach Q3 in the main race qualifying
[COTA] Impeding penalty (at least 1) during main race qualifying
[COTA] Lawson finishes ahead of Tsunoda (main race)
[COTA] Antonelli finishes in top 5 (main race)
[COTA] 6 or more drivers fail to finish the main race
[MEX] Physical Safety Car during the race
[MEX] Red Flag during qualifying
[MEX] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[MEX] Max wins and Oscar finishes 3rd or lower
[MEX] Yuki is send slightly airborne by someone colliding with his right rear tire
[MEX] Yellow flag first lap main race
[MEX] George Russell podium
[MEX] Verstappen takes pole
[MEX] Piastri finishes ahead of Verstappen
[MEX] Red Flag during the Race
[BRA] main race podium is both McLarens and Max in any order
[BRA] a driver from neither McLaren, RBR, Ferrari or Mercedes gets a podium in the main race
[BRA] all three WDC contenders take a part replacement penalty
[BRA] Bortoleto finishes the main race in the points
[BRA] Max finishes the main race ahead of both McLarens
[BRA] Wet or intermediate tyres used in the main race
[BRA] Red flag during qualifying (for the main race)
[BRA] impeding penalty during qualifying (for the main race)
[BRA] McLaren 1-2 in the SPRINT Race
[BRA] Leclerc podium in the main race
[BRA] Alonso finishes in top 10 in the main race
[LAS] Red flag during qualifying
[LAS] Physical safety car during the race
[LAS] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[LAS] Piastri finishes ahead of Norris
[LAS] A Ferrari qualifies in top 4
[LAS] One or more double-DNF (main race)
[LAS] McLaren double podium
[QAT] Verstappen scores 17 points more than Norris over whole weekend
[QAT] Exactly two cars DNF the GP
[QAT] Lando Norris wins WDC
[QAT] Verstappen and Norris make contact in the sprint or main race
[QAT] yellow flag first lap
[QAT] driver disqualified after the main race
[QAT] The same driver wins the Sprint and the main race
[QAT] Tsunoda reaches Q3 of main race qualifying
[QAT] McLaren 1-2 in the sprint race
[QAT] Red flag during main race to clear gravel (no stranded car or significant car parts)
[QAT] Both McLarens touch and at least one of them DNFs because of it
[QAT] Mercedes on the podium (main race)
[QAT] Both Racing Bulls in top 10 (main race)
[QAT] Both Ferraris outside of top 10 (main race)
[ABU] Impeding penalty during qualifying
[ABU] Red flag during qualifying
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
78
73
53
53
47
41
32
27
8
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Lando Norris (McLaren)
Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
Yuki Tsunoda (Previously Liam Lawson) (Red Bull)
George Russel (Mercedes)
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)
Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
Jack Doohan (Alpine)
Alexander Albon (Williams)
Carlos Sainz Jr. (Williams)
Liam Lawson (Previously Yuki Tsunoda) (Visa Cash App Racing Bulls)
Isack Hadjar (Visa Cash App Racing Bulls)
Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber/Stake)
Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber/Stake)
Esteban Ocon (Haas)
Ollie Bearman (Haas)
73
26
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Lando Norris (McLaren)
Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
Oscar Piastri (McLaren)
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
George Russell (Mercedes)
Sergio Perez (Red Bull)
Andrea Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)
Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)
Other
78
19
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A driver gets permanently replaced during the season
A driver misses a race due to health reasons
McLaren wins the WCC
Isack Hadjar gets to drive a grand prix
A team principle gets replaced during the season
Liam Lawson replaced before Abu Dhabi
Norris and Piastri collide and at least one of them DNFs due to the collision
Lance Stroll drives Canada feature race
Lance Stroll drives more than half the remaining races after Barcelona
Going into the last race three drivers can win the WDC
Isack Hadjar scores more points than Yuki Tsunoda
Max Verstappen wins the WDC
Leclerc and Hamilton collide and at least one of them DNFs due to the collision
Paul Aron gets to drive a grand prix
Mohammed Ben Sulayem steps down as head of FIA
Hamilton gets a podium finish
Christian Horner signed for a leadership role at Haas
Flavio Briatore out at Alpine
Max Verstappen receives a race ban due to penalty points
A driver has to sit out at least one race due to swearing
Gabriel Bortoleto scores more points than Nico Hülkenberg
Lewis Hamilton wins a (non sprint) race
Franco Colapinto replaced by another driver before the end of the season
Oliver Bearman receives as race ban
Perez drives the entire season at RBR
The top three drivers in the WDC will be from three different teams
Max Verstappen skips at least one race related to birth of his child
RB finishes ahead of RBR in WCC
Ferrari finishes 2nd in the WCC
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
16
14
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1290
775
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2504
619
OptionVotes
YES
NO
871
36
OptionProbability
A RB or RBR driver is swapped out permanently
A driver gets permanently replaced during the season
Hamilton gets a podium finish
Max Verstappen wins the WDC
A team principle gets replaced during the season
Lewis Hamilton announces retirement
Lewis Hamilton gets a podium
Lewis Hamilton wins a feature race
A driver misses a race due to health reasons
The top three drivers in the WDC will be from three different teams
Neither Cadillac nor Audi finish WCC at the bottom
WCC is won with 5 or more races to go
WDC winner wins their first title
A driver at Red Bull Racing gets replaced during the season
A driver gets a race ban due to penalty points
Ferrari finishes 2nd in the WCC
WDC is won with 5 or more races to go
Mohammed Ben Sulayem steps down as head of FIA
Aston Martin wins WCC
63
60
53
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
45
41
41
41
39
37
37
31
13
OptionProbability
2028
Other
2029
Never
2027
35
34
14
12
4
OptionProbability
Mercedes
Aston Martin
He'll leave F1 without driving for another team
Audi/Sauber
Ferrari
McLaren
Racing Bulls
Alpine
Haas
Williams
Cadillac
Other
37
21
17
8
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Mercedes
McLaren
Red Bull Racing
Ferrari
Aston Martin
Alpine
Williams
Audi
Racing Bulls
Cadillac
Haas
Other
41
17
15
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
147
68
