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Prediction markets for Files

Complete Epstein files released before GTA 6 launch?

Nov 7, 12:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 AM

29.79%chance

378705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1539

653

[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

Jan 6, 11:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.76%chance

487893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7320

2094

Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?

Jul 31, 11:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.48%chance

332735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

715

Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?

Dec 21, 11:42 AMJan 9, 4:59 AM

8.94%chance

132665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3192

313

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

24.72%chance

321957

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1802

300

Will Trump admonish Poland for opening an investigation into the Epstein files?

Feb 3, 9:50 PMMar 4, 11:59 PM

17.02%chance

51505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2208

453

Will nearly all of the Epstein files be released before 2027?

Nov 15, 9:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

23.99%chance

301270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1771

785

Which celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?

Jan 9, 8:42 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

111189

OptionProbability

At least one person who has won an Emmy

At least one person who has won a Grammy

None

At least one house representative.

At least one senator.

At least one governor.

15

15

13

9

9

6

Will filing taxes in the US be substantially easier in 2028 than 2023?

Apr 19, 1:06 AMApr 17, 6:59 AM

59.61%chance

161034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

928

Will Michael Vassar appear in the Epstein Files by 2029?

Nov 21, 5:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.26%chance

4670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

751

13

Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?

Dec 27, 12:04 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

14.39%chance

16362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

74

Which business will file for bankruptcy/close down first: GameStop, or Smashburger?

Jul 3, 3:01 AMJul 2, 3:00 AM

774

OptionProbability

GameStop

Smashburger

58

42

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