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Prediction markets for Files

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

2423827

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12196

9630

Is Trump in the Epstein Files, as claimed by Musk?

Jun 6, 4:18 AMJan 2, 5:04 AM

78.5%chance

11816696

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1911

523

Will Beyond Meat (BYND) file for bankruptcy by the end of 2025?

May 16, 9:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.17%chance

345216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5395

1498

Criminal charges filed for Eaton Fire by the end of 2025?

Jan 9, 4:52 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

15%chance

72850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2380

420

Criminal charges filed for Palisades Fire by the end of 2025?

Jan 9, 8:57 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

21.58%chance

122384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1906

525

Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?

Jul 31, 11:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.84%chance

312125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

898

Criminal charges filed for Sunset Fire by the end of 2025?

Jan 9, 9:08 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

33.68%chance

111581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

713

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

70.13%chance

291047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

930

Will filing taxes in the US be substantially easier in 2028 than 2023?

Apr 19, 1:06 AMApr 17, 6:59 AM

59.61%chance

161034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

928

Which celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?

Jan 9, 8:42 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11988

OptionProbability

At least one person who has won an Emmy

At least one person who has won a Grammy

None

At least one house representative.

At least one senator.

At least one governor.

35

34

13

9

9

6

Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?

Dec 21, 11:42 AMJan 9, 4:59 AM

31.68%chance

11640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1469

681

What month (starting Jan 2023) will the next Dresden Files book (Twelve Months) come out?

Jul 25, 3:03 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

78.42%chance

3142

OptionProbability

NO

YES

2606

2433

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