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Prediction markets for Files

Will an application to ban AfD be filed at the Federal Constitutional Court before 2026?

Jan 22, 4:05 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.04%chance

2655835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

42660

7757

Will Beyond Meat (BYND) file for bankruptcy by the end of 2025?

May 16, 9:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.48%chance

4012176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6750

1408

Complete Epstein files released before GTA 6 launch?

Nov 7, 12:40 PMJan 1, 11:59 AM

51.77%chance

347327

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1036

965

Criminal charges filed for Eaton Fire by the end of 2025?

Jan 9, 4:52 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

8.05%chance

83850

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3380

296

Will one of the “Big Three” automakers (GM/Ford/Stellantis) file for bankruptcy before 2027?

Jul 31, 11:02 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

27.48%chance

332735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1504

715

Criminal charges filed for Sunset Fire by the end of 2025?

Jan 9, 9:08 PMJan 1, 1:00 AM

20.01%chance

132182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1999

500

Will I manage to find the save files of an old Minecraft server I used to play on? [M$50,000 bounty]

Dec 3, 9:10 PMFeb 1, 9:06 PM

78.51%chance

81330

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Which celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?

Jan 9, 8:42 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

111189

OptionProbability

At least one person who has won an Emmy

At least one person who has won a Grammy

None

At least one house representative.

At least one senator.

At least one governor.

15

15

13

9

9

6

Will AI be able to write, compile, and unit test a single .c file to reproduce GPT-2 training from PyTorch code by 2026?

Apr 9, 4:13 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

70.13%chance

291047

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

930

Will filing taxes in the US be substantially easier in 2028 than 2023?

Apr 19, 1:06 AMApr 17, 6:59 AM

59.61%chance

161034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

928

Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?

Dec 21, 11:42 AMJan 9, 4:59 AM

31.68%chance

11640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1469

681

Will nearly all of the Epstein files be released before 2027?

Nov 15, 9:07 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.15%chance

15502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

927

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