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Prediction markets for film

In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?

Aug 18, 10:56 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

10.42%chance

325654

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2931

341

Lauren Sanchez in the next Bond film?

Aug 14, 4:32 AMApr 30, 10:59 PM

4.09%chance

113622

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3422

47

SOAI#7: A movie or short film produced with significant use of AI wins major audience praise and sparks backlash

Oct 9, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.45%chance

282673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55%chance

151816

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

905

Before 2040, will an entirely AI-generated film earn a 5/10 or better on IMDB?

Sep 21, 1:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.42%chance

11590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

824

On May 1st 2029 will the highest grossing movie of all time in the USA be a Star Wars film?

Jan 17, 5:10 PMMay 2, 3:59 AM

38.1%chance

16529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1107

778

Will Taika Waititi's Star Wars film come out before a human walks on the moon again?

Dec 25, 8:14 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

56.42%chance

16411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

746

Mistborn/Stormlight Archive TV show/movie begins filming by EOY 2028?

Jan 28, 10:37 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.1%chance

8365

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

744

Will the Super Mario Galaxy movie feature a teaser for a Legend of Zelda film?

Jan 14, 1:35 PMApr 3, 11:59 PM

45.62%chance

9300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1092

916

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce at least $500,000 in revenue?

Sep 21, 6:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.73%chance

5175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

891

Will there be a sequel to the 2004 comedy film Soul Plane before Jan 1st 2030?

Dec 3, 2:21 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

29.3%chance

20163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

977

Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"

Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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