Final Rule News

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.1%chance

194280263

OptionVotes

YES

10838

9495

My kid chooses her favorite picture

Nov 22, 8:12 PMDec 11, 4:50 AM

8589857

OptionProbability

Other

Bob holding teddy: https://imgur.com/a/sro75PQ

"Fairy adventure with my dad" : https://shorturl.at/9nP0r

Optical Illusion - https://tinyurl.com/2t8tt49z

Cosmic quokka - https://tinyurl.com/d87tcub7

Bird friends - https://tinyurl.com/kxf74j8t

Gabby's Dollhouse : https://i.scdn.co/image/ab6761610000e5eb20614df23a12d79157222fbd

nagai hiroshi - https://tinyurl.com/bwfnbnkf

The State Flag of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics: https://files.catbox.moe/9960nc.png

USA flag - https://shorturl.at/wtuaQ

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Jun 13, 6:55 AMJun 30, 6:43 AM

16965924

OptionProbability

Pilot Action: Pilot action was a primary cause of the crash.

Design/Manufacturing Defect: A Boeing design or manufacturing defect was a primary cause of the crash.

Maintenance/Fueling Lapse: An Air India maintenance or fueling lapse was a primary cause of the crash.

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Apr 5, 2:04 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14.67%chance

5811984

OptionVotes

YES

2244

222

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Dec 8, 2:52 AMDec 7, 5:00 AM

10.08%chance

12410434

OptionVotes

YES

4399

1460

Will ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Feb 15, 5:32 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72.59%chance

332901

OptionVotes

YES

1627

614

Will Manifold Staff rule that the POTUS is the President in this circumstance*?

Mar 11, 1:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.22%chance

3705

OptionVotes

YES

1205

830

US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?

Jun 11, 2:25 PMDec 31, 3:21 PM

56.37%chance

13704

OptionVotes

YES

1137

880

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Nov 13, 4:55 AMNov 12, 4:47 AM

70.73%chance

3567

OptionVotes

YES

1555

643

Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?

Dec 1, 8:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

3300

OptionVotes

YES

1300

769

Will the domino-toppling world record be broken before 2030?

May 1, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

49.71%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1001

999

Will the EPA's final rules targeting ethylene oxide (EtO) and chloroprene be repealed by 2028

Jul 15, 1:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Final Rule News

Prediction markets for Final Rule

Prediction markets for Final Rule

Prediction markets for Final Rule

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

My kid chooses her favorite picture

What will be the official cause(s) of the Air India Flight 171 crash?

Will GPT-5 be able to solve A::B system puzzles consistently

Will the GitHub Copilot Litigation Succeed?

Will ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention?

Will Manifold Staff rule that the POTUS is the President in this circumstance*?

US Supreme Court rules for Trump in Trump v. Wilcox?

Will hemp-derived CBN sleep products still be federally legal as “hemp” on Nov 12, 2026?

Will there be a US federal antitrust ruling against a 2025 frontier lab by the end of 2032?

Will the domino-toppling world record be broken before 2030?

Will the EPA's final rules targeting ethylene oxide (EtO) and chloroprene be repealed by 2028

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