Financial Crisis News

Will there be a global recession declared by the IMF before December 31, 2025?

Jun 10, 4:17 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

1%chance

2811921

OptionVotes

YES

9950

101

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

Oct 18, 4:53 PMOct 20, 3:59 AM

64.59%chance

513151

OptionVotes

YES

1392

619

What will happen to the UK before 2050?

Apr 16, 3:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

312223

OptionProbability

electing a PM who contemporaneously describes himself as a socialist

Coronation of King William

Any Overseas Territory or Crown Dependency no longer under British sovereignty (de jure, even if temporarily)

A major financial crisis (40% drawdown of FTSE 100)

Rejoining the European Customs Union

A Prime Minister not from the Conservative or Labour parties

a year where population declines by 1%

A year with inflation >10%

The House of Lords is either abolished or democratically elected

A game of thrones sequel (not a prequel)

A ≤500-member House of Commons is elected (incl. Sinn Féin)

Winning the FIFA world cup

Republic

Any part of the territory of the UK proper as of 2024 ceases to be under British sovereignty

House of Commons elections use a different voting method than "name one and shut up"

rejoining the European Union

UK invades a foreign country with >10k ground troops

A year with higher GDP (PPP) per capita than Canada

joining the Euro

Two new monarchs after Charles III

Has an NFL franchise

annexation by the USA

100

Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?

Jul 31, 10:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.48%chance

141420

OptionVotes

YES

423

127

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

Jul 18, 1:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.42%chance

91002

OptionVotes

YES

1808

553

In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

Mar 6, 6:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11762

OptionProbability

Other

2028

2026

2025

2030

2024

2022

2023

2027

2029

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Nov 10, 12:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.71%chance

20567

OptionVotes

YES

268

233

Will US fertility rates go above 2 births per woman before 2030?

Jan 21, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.24%chance

12365

OptionVotes

YES

380

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Dec 2025 to exceed 600

Jun 30, 4:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

4163

OptionVotes

YES

136

Will New York City government have a 1975 style financial crisis, threat of bankruptcy, before the end of 2028?

Mar 29, 1:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.12%chance

9159

OptionVotes

YES

200

Will the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in the U.S. exceed 2% for any quarter before 2026?

Feb 17, 2:50 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

82.67%chance

6140

OptionVotes

YES

264

If Javier Milei abolishes the Central Bank of Argentina, will it cause a recession or financial crisis?

Nov 24, 11:45 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

36.89%chance

10136

OptionVotes

YES

240

189

Financial Crisis News

Prediction markets for Financial Crisis

Prediction markets for Financial Crisis

Prediction markets for Financial Crisis

Will there be a global recession declared by the IMF before December 31, 2025?

Will AI cause a financial crash within a decade? (By Oct 2032)

What will happen to the UK before 2050?

Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?

America Nationalizes Major AI org before 2029

In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?

AI bubble pops in 2026?

Will US fertility rates go above 2 births per woman before 2030?

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Dec 2025 to exceed 600

Will New York City government have a 1975 style financial crisis, threat of bankruptcy, before the end of 2028?

Will the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in the U.S. exceed 2% for any quarter before 2026?

If Javier Milei abolishes the Central Bank of Argentina, will it cause a recession or financial crisis?

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