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Prediction markets for Financial Review

Will 5% (or less) adults smoke cigarettes in England by the end of 2030?

Jun 17, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.43%chance

1268673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2709

1883

When will the first prediction market ETF launch?

Apr 29, 1:08 AMJul 2, 3:59 AM

83224

OptionProbability

May 5-11 2026

May 12-18 2026

May 26-June 1 2026

May 19-25 2026

32

32

20

17

Will there be an attempt of a radical cognitive enhancement program with clinical trials on humans by January 1, 2030?

May 17, 11:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.9%chance

241876

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4120

3063

China arranges for permanent Iran peace deal in exchange for Nvidia chips

May 12, 2:38 AMAug 12, 2:35 AM

10%chance

18618

OptionVotes

YES

NO

486

209

Will GOOG have the largest market cap by EOY 2026?

Apr 30, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41%chance

16615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will the UK require biometric ID (e.g. facial recognition or digital fingerprinting) for NHS access by 2030?

Jul 21, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.72%chance

5164

OptionVotes

YES

NO

179

56

Now Amazon buys Konami on 2034!

Feb 10, 2:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.92%chance

374

OptionVotes

NO

YES

146

69

Will Truth Social be bought before 2029?

Jun 19, 6:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.54%chance

470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

60

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

988

Will Dan complain about the cost of NYC unprompted?

May 16, 6:57 PMAug 31, 6:56 PM

69.23%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

150

67

Will Doctors Without Borders USA report at least $850 million in total revenue for fiscal year 2026?

Jun 8, 8:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.83%chance

647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

75

Will OpenDroids (https://jackjay.io/) raise > $2 Million by EOY2028?

May 21, 3:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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