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Prediction markets for FIR

Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)

Sep 19, 8:40 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

4.84%chance

87213855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

48701

2854

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

Mar 13, 8:09 AMMar 13, 8:02 AM

16270475

OptionProbability

Benjamin Netanyahu

Mojtaba Khomeini

Donald Trump

71

22

7

Will @firstuserhere live upto the age of 420?

Aug 26, 7:05 AMJun 16, 6:29 PM

10.35%chance

3442887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1455

917

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

10.95%chance

5025557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28523

3510

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

17625305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11985

9054

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.17%chance

3517355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7670

470

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

59.54%chance

3215777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12130

8244

AOC will be first female POTUS?

Jul 25, 10:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.98%chance

217765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16781

8010

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.51%chance

576376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1155

893

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.76%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

926

Will ""The first two weeks are the hardest": my fir..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 19, 4:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.52%chance

16

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

964

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