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Prediction markets for Fire
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
45.98%chance
9519841
OptionVotes
2264
1728
Will Trump attempt to fire Jerome Powell before May 2026?
Jul 3, 1:14 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM
11.1%chance
9015110
OptionVotes
3975
138
Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
88.12%chance
566365
OptionVotes
2074
1119
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
Mar 20, 12:36 AMSep 19, 11:00 PM
52.36%chance
946319
OptionVotes
1154
713
Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?
Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
24.44%chance
224116
OptionVotes
1759
569
Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?
Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
16.84%chance
312834
OptionVotes
1351
868
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
66%chance
532756
OptionVotes
1139
901
Movie/TV show about Sam Altman's Firing from OpenAI / Battle of the Board, before 2027?
Jun 3, 10:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
76%chance
232243
OptionVotes
1780
562
Will the Lakers fire JJ Redick before his 4-year contract ends (in June 2028)?
Sep 30, 7:28 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM
56.93%chance
121717
OptionVotes
1150
870
Will a NATO aircraft shoot down a missile or drone fired towards a target in Ukraine before 2027?
Apr 15, 7:34 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM
37.56%chance
231333
OptionVotes
1310
735
If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
24.84%chance
19648
OptionVotes
990
982
Will Goldman Sachs fire its banking analysts that took PE jobs?
Jan 13, 1:20 PMDec 25, 1:14 PM
33.54%chance
6434
OptionVotes
1408
711