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Prediction markets for Fire
OptionVotes
230319
20
OptionVotes
9779
356
Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?
Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM
45.56%chance
8517148
OptionVotes
2279
1711
In retrospect, would Sam Altman being fired from OpenAI be a net negative to alignment? (EoY 2025)
Nov 18, 10:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
61.45%chance
627029
OptionVotes
1045
847
Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?
Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM
84.53%chance
555915
OptionVotes
1624
1189
Will Trump attempt to fire Jerome Powell before May 2026?
Jul 3, 1:14 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM
39.59%chance
434641
OptionVotes
2763
504
Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?
Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
33.58%chance
193764
OptionVotes
1407
711
Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?
Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM
16.84%chance
312834
OptionVotes
1351
868
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
66.03%chance
512546
OptionVotes
1140
901
Will the Lakers fire JJ Redick before his 4-year contract ends (in June 2028)?
Sep 30, 7:28 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM
56.93%chance
121717
OptionVotes
1150
870
If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
25.48%chance
18623
OptionVotes
991
965
ICE Assistant Chief Counsel James Rodden, "GlomarResponder," leaves role/is fired before December 31, 2025
Feb 19, 11:47 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM
50%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000