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Top stories

Amazon to Launch $400 Higher-End Fire Tablet Running Android in 2026, Ending Fire OS Under Kittyhawk Project

Amazon to Launch $400 Higher-End Fire Tablet Running Android in 2026, Ending Fire OS Under Kittyhawk Project

Authors

25

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Fire

Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by the end of 2030?

Jul 24, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.73%chance

6128700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1451

549

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

51.06%chance

10927408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2056

1924

Will Ghent fire Nathan Cofnas before 2028?

Aug 20, 6:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.59%chance

3715489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1705

586

Will George R.R. Martin die before delivering the final book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series?

Apr 3, 7:06 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

85.49%chance

606516

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1726

1171

Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?

Mar 20, 12:36 AMSep 19, 11:00 PM

59.14%chance

956477

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

850

Will a specific mid-level bureaucrat be fired under Trump?

Nov 8, 4:34 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

24.44%chance

224116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1759

569

Will there be a fire alarm for AGI by the end of 2027?

Sep 28, 11:28 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

18.92%chance

322864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

898

Will the Lakers fire JJ Redick before his 4-year contract ends (in June 2028)?

Sep 30, 7:28 PMJun 22, 3:59 AM

55.54%chance

121742

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1118

895

Will someone have been fired from their job plausibly due to leaking information on Manifold Markets by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.94%chance

301329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

964

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be in ARTIFICIAL, the movie about OpenAI and the firing and rehiring of Sam Altman

Sep 8, 5:47 PMApr 22, 12:59 AM

41.05%chance

13706

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1198

834

Will the next round of US-Iran peace talks result in a cease-fire lasting at least 30 days?

Aug 3, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.7%chance

12481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1285

778

Will someone manipulate a fire market?

Jul 2, 6:06 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

45%chance

4238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

905

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