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First Day On Earth News

    Prediction markets for First Day On Earth

    Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

    Jan 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    295570

    OptionProbability

    No, Jesus Christ will not return before 2027

    Yes, Jesus Christ will return before 2027

    98

    2

    What civil time system will be used on Mars?

    Jan 10, 1:11 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM
    262000

    OptionProbability

    A day will be 24 hours, 39 minutes and 35.244 SI seconds long

    Other

    A day will be 24h×60m×60s using a "mars second" equal to 1.0275 SI seconds.

    A day will be 24h×60m×60s where a "second" is a unit of angle rather than time, equal to 1/86400 of a revolution w.r.t the sun (i.e. the equivalent of Earth's UT1, this is called "Coordinated Mars Time")

    A day will be 24h×60m×60s using SI seconds (and will drift with respect to mean solar time by ~40 minutes a day)

    Time of day will be an incrementing number of SI seconds from 0 to 88775.244 (possibly rounded to an integer, with leap-seconds every 4 days or whatever, or no leap seconds and allowing it to drift)

    49

    30

    10

    6

    3

    1

    Will people fly on moon before 2040?

    Jan 5, 3:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    99%chance
    141244

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    995

    10

    When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

    Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
    17.05%chance
    181129

    OptionProbability

    YES

    NO

    1527

    849

    First person to die on Mars will be a man

    Aug 8, 5:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
    65%chance
    10354

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    190

    168

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