First Information Report News

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3174886

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:40 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

1.04%chance

916486

OptionVotes

YES

9756

103

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

May 28, 2:12 AMDec 31, 2:04 AM

136382

OptionProbability

HLS Cancelled

Other

September 2027

October 2027

November 2027

December 2027

January 2028

February 2028

March 2028

April 2028

May 2028

July 2027

August 2027

June 2028

July 2028

August 2028

September 2028

November 2028

June 2027

October 2028

April 2027

May 2027

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

Jun 11, 7:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

242393

OptionProbability

2100

2070

2050

2040

2035

2030

2027

2025

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

Aug 25, 1:55 PMFeb 12, 11:59 PM

29.82%chance

412319

OptionVotes

YES

1259

851

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

70.93%chance

421450

OptionVotes

YES

1064

954

Will Germany’s population have peaked by the end of 2025?

Feb 12, 10:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.81%chance

331312

OptionVotes

YES

1133

892

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Feb 17, 6:23 PMDec 31, 6:20 PM

10798

OptionProbability

Create new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm

Provide voting public with better information on candidates chances in elections

Lead to manipulation and misinformation through coordinated betting

Increase polarization by incentivizing extreme predictions

Make me the President of USA

Provide public with better information about impact of policies and new legislation

Bring Jeffrey epstein back to life

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

YES

257

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

YES

1051

819

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.71%chance

5262

OptionVotes

YES

126

Will Zhang Youxia be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.65%chance

2100

OptionVotes

YES

117

First Information Report News

Prediction markets for First Information Report

Prediction markets for First Information Report

Prediction markets for First Information Report

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Will Germany’s population have peaked by the end of 2025?

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Will Zhang Youxia be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

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