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Prediction markets for First Information Report

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2974768

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >=4%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

28

27

21

20

1

1

1

1

[Metaculus] Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Oct 3, 11:35 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

2.73%chance

712067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5974

167

Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Pete Hegseth?

Apr 21, 8:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

41.06%chance

342484

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will we learn by 2026 that a human had been artificially cloned as of September 2023?

Sep 25, 9:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.75%chance

152415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

941

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

Aug 25, 1:55 PMFeb 12, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

412255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

916

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

May 28, 2:12 AMDec 31, 2:04 AM

81653

OptionProbability

Other

December 2027

October 2027

November 2027

HLS Cancelled

September 2027

August 2027

July 2027

May 2027

June 2027

March 2027

April 2027

January 2027

February 2027

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

16

10

9

9

8

7

6

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

70.93%chance

421450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

954

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

Diddy Prison Time?

Jul 5, 10:09 PMAug 1, 3:59 AM

3419

Large-scale internet blackout in G20 country by EOY2025?

Jun 6, 12:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.98%chance

7213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

Will NASA approve the Uranus Orbiter before 2030?

Mar 30, 10:44 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33.78%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

82

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

67.47%chance

8119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

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