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First Information Report News

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3175201

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

27

25

25

19

1

1

1

1

Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:40 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

1.04%chance

1016492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9772

102

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

May 28, 2:12 AMDec 31, 2:04 AM

136911

OptionProbability

Other

HLS Cancelled

November 2027

December 2027

January 2028

February 2028

March 2028

April 2028

May 2028

June 2028

July 2028

July 2027

August 2027

September 2027

October 2027

August 2028

September 2028

November 2028

June 2027

October 2028

April 2027

May 2027

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

15

14

5

5

5

5

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

Jun 11, 7:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

242393

OptionProbability

2100

2070

2050

2040

2035

2030

2027

2025

91

88

86

75

63

25

13

8

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

Aug 25, 1:55 PMFeb 12, 11:59 PM

30.46%chance

422329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

861

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

70.93%chance

421450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

954

Will Germany’s population have peaked by the end of 2025?

Feb 12, 10:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.79%chance

331337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

909

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

43.52%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

56

Will NASA approve the Uranus Orbiter before 2030?

Mar 30, 10:44 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33.78%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

82

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

988

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