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First Information Report News

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3074836

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

31

26

21

19

1

1

1

1

[Metaculus] Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Oct 3, 11:35 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

1%chance

716043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

May 28, 2:12 AMDec 31, 2:04 AM

123916

OptionProbability

Other

HLS Cancelled

December 2027

September 2027

October 2027

November 2027

May 2028

June 2028

July 2028

June 2027

January 2028

March 2028

April 2028

July 2027

August 2027

February 2028

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

April 2027

May 2027

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

30

12

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will a high-profile news story about my egg freezing journey lead to problems working with clinics in the future

Sep 11, 9:27 PMDec 31, 10:19 PM

33%chance

283390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Pete Hegseth?

Apr 21, 8:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

42.45%chance

382737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

86

Will we learn by 2026 that a human had been artificially cloned as of September 2023?

Sep 25, 9:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.75%chance

152415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

941

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

Aug 25, 1:55 PMFeb 12, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

412255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

916

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

70.93%chance

421450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

954

Will the S&P 500 "Information Technology" sector exceed 30% by 2025?

Mar 23, 12:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

98.13%chance

6763

OptionVotes

NO

YES

796

15

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:40 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

33.78%chance

3500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1400

714

Will NASA approve the Uranus Orbiter before 2030?

Mar 30, 10:44 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33.78%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

82

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