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Prediction markets for First Information Report

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3174886

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

31

26

21

19

1

1

1

1

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

486932

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Worldwide Pandemic

55

37

32

14

10

8

5

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

May 28, 2:12 AMDec 31, 2:04 AM

123989

OptionProbability

Other

HLS Cancelled

October 2027

November 2027

December 2027

June 2028

July 2028

September 2027

January 2028

March 2028

April 2028

May 2028

June 2027

July 2027

August 2027

February 2028

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

April 2027

May 2027

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

35

15

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Trump's first cabinet member fired, failed, or resigned Pete Hegseth?

Apr 21, 8:52 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

10.06%chance

393051

OptionVotes

YES

NO

299

33

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

Aug 25, 1:55 PMFeb 12, 11:59 PM

29.82%chance

412319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

851

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

70.93%chance

421450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

954

Will Germany’s population have peaked by the end of 2025?

Feb 12, 10:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

39.81%chance

331312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

892

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:40 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

27.89%chance

4718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1608

622

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.09%chance

4145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

Will Zhang Youxia be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 3:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.65%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

117

86

Whom of his own (individuals belonging to group) will Trump get rid of related to Venezuela (during term)? (add)

Jan 4, 7:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 AM

110

OptionProbability

Combatant commanders/Joint Chiefs

Cabinet member

50

47

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