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Prediction markets for First Information Report

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3579511

OptionProbability

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

48

22

19

8

1

1

1

1

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

May 28, 2:12 AMDec 31, 2:04 AM

177628

OptionProbability

Other

HLS Cancelled

November 2027

December 2027

January 2028

February 2028

May 2028

August 2027

September 2027

October 2027

March 2028

April 2028

June 2028

July 2028

August 2028

November 2028

July 2027

September 2028

October 2028

April 2027

May 2027

June 2027

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

31

11

4

4

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497048

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

57

34

32

14

12

10

8

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

Aug 25, 1:55 PMFeb 12, 11:59 PM

30.46%chance

422329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

861

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

71.07%chance

431455

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

952

Will Germany’s population have peaked by the end of 2025?

Feb 12, 10:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.79%chance

331337

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

909

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

How much money will the FDA pay out in 2026 under their new initiative to pay reviewers for quality and speed?

Feb 27, 8:08 PMFeb 28, 4:59 AM

2477

OptionProbability

$10M - $99.99M

$100M - $999.99M

$0 - $9.99M

$1B+

40

27

21

11

Will the Coalition next split before the next election?

Feb 8, 4:59 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

43.52%chance

6225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

56

Will a country do a bombing live stream by EOY 2030?

Jun 19, 3:00 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.15%chance

8112

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

93

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

988

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