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First Information Reports News

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2974768

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

30

26

21

19

1

1

1

1

[Metaculus] Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?

Oct 3, 11:35 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

2.73%chance

712067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5974

167

Will we learn by 2026 that a human had been artificially cloned as of September 2023?

Sep 25, 9:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.75%chance

152415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

941

By which year will most Americans have had their DNA sequenced?

Jun 11, 7:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

242387

OptionProbability

2100

2070

2050

2040

2035

2030

2027

2025

91

88

86

75

63

25

13

8

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

Aug 25, 1:55 PMFeb 12, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

412255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

916

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

May 28, 2:12 AMDec 31, 2:04 AM

81653

OptionProbability

Other

December 2027

October 2027

November 2027

HLS Cancelled

September 2027

August 2027

July 2027

May 2027

June 2027

March 2027

April 2027

January 2027

February 2027

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

16

10

9

9

8

7

6

5

4

4

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Which country will win the 2027 Cricket World Cup

Jul 22, 11:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31648

OptionProbability

India

Australia

Other

England

South Africa

31

20

19

15

14

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

70.93%chance

421450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1064

954

Will NYC subway trains (on any line) still have conductors in 2035?

May 25, 12:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

86.87%chance

8731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

39

How many states will ban fluoride in drinking water in 2025

May 8, 8:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9469

OptionProbability

Less than 5

Between 5 and 8

Less than 5

Between 5 and 8

Between 9 and 12

More than 12

Other

56

24

6

5

4

4

1

Will NASA approve the Uranus Orbiter before 2030?

Mar 30, 10:44 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33.78%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

82

China CO2 emissions in 2026 less than in 2025?

Jul 8, 9:13 PMMar 1, 11:59 PM

67.47%chance

8119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

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