First Information Reports News

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3174886

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?

Nov 24, 8:40 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

1.04%chance

916486

OptionVotes

YES

9756

103

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

May 28, 2:12 AMDec 31, 2:04 AM

136656

OptionProbability

Other

HLS Cancelled

November 2027

December 2027

January 2028

February 2028

March 2028

April 2028

May 2028

June 2028

July 2028

July 2027

August 2027

September 2027

October 2027

August 2028

September 2028

November 2028

June 2027

October 2028

April 2027

May 2027

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

May 2026

June 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

Aug 25, 1:55 PMFeb 12, 11:59 PM

30.46%chance

422329

OptionVotes

YES

1235

861

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Apr 15, 2:22 PMJan 2, 5:00 PM

70.93%chance

421450

OptionVotes

YES

1064

954

Will Germany’s population have peaked by the end of 2025?

Feb 12, 10:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.79%chance

331337

OptionVotes

YES

1108

909

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

Feb 17, 6:23 PMDec 31, 6:20 PM

11988

OptionProbability

Create new forms of gambling addiction and financial harm

Provide voting public with better information on candidates chances in elections

Lead to manipulation and misinformation through coordinated betting

Increase polarization by incentivizing extreme predictions

Provide public with better information about impact of policies and new legislation

Bring Jeffrey epstein back to life

Make me the President of USA

How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?

Apr 24, 3:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6572

OptionProbability

Appeal or other delay into 2027

Judgment primarily for me (25-99%)

Judgment entirely for me (100%+)

Judgment approximately even (+/-25%)

Settlement to sell for >= $1.6M

Settlement to sell for < $1.6M

Judgment entirely for buyer (100%+)

Judgment primarily for buyer (25-99%)

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

YES

1063

784

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Nov 20, 4:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.71%chance

5262

OptionVotes

YES

126

Will NASA approve the Uranus Orbiter before 2030?

Mar 30, 10:44 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

33.78%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

150

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

YES

124

First Information Reports News

Prediction markets for First Information Reports

Prediction markets for First Information Reports

Prediction markets for First Information Reports

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Tesla certifies first tranche of 2025 CEO Performance Award by June 30, 2026?

Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?

Will data storage with DNA be in use by 2035?

[Metaculus] Will Python still be most popular programming language at the end of 2030?

Will Germany’s population have peaked by the end of 2025?

Prop bets: What will prediction markets do to society (add your own)

How will the lawsuit over the sale of my home resolve in 2026?

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Polymarket exceeds $10B monthly trading volume in Dec 2027?

Will NASA approve the Uranus Orbiter before 2030?

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

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