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Prediction markets for First Money In

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 1, 7:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

36.15%chance

4931057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

462

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.88%chance

4411762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

669

Will MNX still be operating at EOY 2026?

Feb 18, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.78%chance

499063

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3232

68

Will fast takeoff (less than 72 hours from AGI to ASI) occur (before 2050)?

May 17, 5:25 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

17.32%chance

416016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2185

458

Will I be radicalized against taxes by having a job?

Oct 16, 7:42 PMOct 16, 7:32 PM

21.12%chance

524773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

517

Will I get an English Major at Tufts?

Jun 1, 4:24 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

87.37%chance

142973

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2546

288

Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?

Dec 12, 5:18 PMDec 20, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

241865

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2905

1747

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.89%chance

211226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

711

When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?

Mar 25, 3:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15639

OptionProbability

Not before 2030

2028 or 2029

2026 or 2027

2024 or 2025

56

23

19

2

will my taiwanese grandma (86) pass away before china invades taiwan?

Feb 26, 12:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

65.25%chance

6583

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1370

730

TSLA pays a dividend before Elon Musk leaves as CEO?

Mar 14, 12:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2300

OptionProbability

Elon Musk no longer CEO of TSLA first, before a dividend is paid

TSLA pays a money dividend to common stock first, before Elon Musk leaves as CEO.

63

37

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