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Prediction markets for First Money In

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8%chance

4752334

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3140

335

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

5418770

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

Other

2025

2030

2024

39

16

16

13

11

2

2

0

Will the Spaceballs sequel be called "Spaceballs 2: The Search for More Money"?

Jun 19, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

218454

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Sequel not released before 2035

73

21

6

Will fast takeoff (less than 72 hours from AGI to ASI) occur (before 2050)?

May 17, 5:25 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.69%chance

405915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

479

Will I be radicalized against taxes by having a job?

Oct 16, 7:42 PMOct 16, 7:32 PM

20.35%chance

514332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1979

505

Will I get an English Major at Tufts?

Jun 1, 4:24 AMJun 1, 6:59 AM

87.37%chance

142973

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2546

288

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

18.61%chance

102933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2092

478

Will Elon Musk's investment in Twitter beat the NASDAQ?

Nov 20, 8:16 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

19%chance

261496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1624

754

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.89%chance

211226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

711

Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?

Dec 12, 5:18 PMDec 20, 7:59 AM

17.18%chance

24865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

1905

When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?

Mar 25, 3:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13517

OptionProbability

Not before 2030

2028 or 2029

2026 or 2027

2024 or 2025

43

30

25

2

TSLA pays a dividend before Elon Musk leaves as CEO?

Mar 14, 12:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2300

OptionProbability

Elon Musk no longer CEO of TSLA first, before a dividend is paid

TSLA pays a money dividend to common stock first, before Elon Musk leaves as CEO.

63

37

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