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Prediction markets for First Money In

Does Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)

Nov 12, 8:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.86%chance

4852701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2766

372

Will Dan Sullivan win re-election to Alaska's Senate seat in 2026?

Jan 1, 7:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

45.74%chance

4228406

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1319

599

When will Keir Starmer be replaced as Prime Minister of the UK?

Jul 10, 9:36 AMMar 31, 10:59 PM

6722441

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2029

2028

Other

2030

2024

2025

61

17

8

6

5

2

0

0

Will the Spaceballs sequel be called "Spaceballs 2: The Search for More Money"?

Jun 19, 2:34 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

228459

OptionProbability

Yes

No

Sequel not released before 2035

73

21

6

Will MNX still be operating at EOY 2026?

Feb 18, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90%chance

458422

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2856

100

Will fast takeoff (less than 72 hours from AGI to ASI) occur (before 2050)?

May 17, 5:25 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18.69%chance

405915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

479

Will I be radicalized against taxes by having a job?

Oct 16, 7:42 PMOct 16, 7:32 PM

21.12%chance

524773

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1932

517

Will a >$10B AI alignment megaproject start work before 2030?

Aug 1, 5:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.89%chance

211226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1120

711

Will LOY-001 establish efficacy?

Dec 12, 5:18 PMDec 20, 7:59 AM

17.18%chance

24865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1906

1905

will my taiwanese grandma (86) pass away before china invades taiwan?

Feb 26, 12:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62.33%chance

6535

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

777

Will Sidemen FC win the Sidemen Charity Match

Feb 7, 11:40 AMApr 19, 12:59 AM

57.12%chance

6325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

867

TSLA pays a dividend before Elon Musk leaves as CEO?

Mar 14, 12:53 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2300

OptionProbability

Elon Musk no longer CEO of TSLA first, before a dividend is paid

TSLA pays a money dividend to common stock first, before Elon Musk leaves as CEO.

63

37

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