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Prediction markets for First or Second Amendments

First to lose power: Khomeini, Trump or Netanyahu?

Mar 13, 8:09 AMMar 13, 8:02 AM

16270475

OptionProbability

Benjamin Netanyahu

Mojtaba Khomeini

Donald Trump

71

22

7

If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?

Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

2364892

OptionProbability

None— vacant thoughout end of term in Jan 20 2029

Other

Matt Giacona

Trump not elected President

65

29

5

1

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

10.95%chance

5025557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28523

3510

Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?

Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.99%chance

17625305

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11985

9054

Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?

Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

2.17%chance

3517355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7670

470

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM

59.54%chance

3215777

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12130

8244

AOC will be first female POTUS?

Jul 25, 10:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.98%chance

217765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16781

8010

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

454104

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

321030

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?

Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.76%chance

11242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1135

926

Which ends first

Dec 22, 6:21 PMJan 23, 5:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

LeBron’s NBA (playing) career

Steelers’ non-losing season streak

50

50

When will my app WalkYourTime reach the first 100 downloads?

Apr 7, 9:41 AMFeb 1, 9:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

Jan-Apr 2028

May-Aug 2028

Sep-Dec 2028

Jan-Apr 2029

May-Aug 2029

Sep-Dec 2029

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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