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Prediction markets for First Principles AI

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.5%chance

534616

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1378

726

When will Extropic AI ship a product?

Apr 27, 11:12 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

92359

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2030-2031

2040-2041

2024-2025

2026-2027

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

96

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will an AI system discover information theory from first principles before 2031?

May 1, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.73%chance

6460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1341

746

By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?

Oct 21, 8:51 PMOct 28, 11:59 PM

36.7%chance

789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

55

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

67

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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