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Prediction markets for First Principles AI

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.43%chance

1518900

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1669

599

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.02%chance

504175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1528

654

When will Extropic AI ship a product?

Apr 27, 11:12 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

8604

OptionProbability

2026-2027

2040-2041

2027-2028

2028-2029

2029-2030

2030-2031

2025-2026

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2024-2025

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

64

13

5

5

5

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

By 2030 will China have reached AI flops/$ parity with the US?

Oct 21, 8:51 PMOct 28, 11:59 PM

36.7%chance

789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

55

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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