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Prediction markets for First Step Act

First US state to secede

Jul 12, 5:58 PMDec 31, 6:32 PM

10719

OptionProbability

Other

California

Florida

Washington

Texas

New Mexico

Hawaii

Alaska

36

15

14

12

8

5

5

5

Italy: Will Parliament curb prosecutors' judicial police powers by EOY 2029? (unconditional)

Mar 12, 8:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.23%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

145

69

Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?

Jul 16, 1:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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