First News
Top stories
Prediction markets for First
If Trump is President in 2025, who will be his first appointee to lead the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management?
Jul 3, 1:56 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM
2058388
OptionProbability
44
36
19
1
Will the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Sep 8, 6:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
3%chance
10431813
OptionVotes
11415
1071
Will the first person to walk on Mars make it back to Earth?
Mar 26, 4:52 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
70.89%chance
17425268
OptionVotes
11948
9070
Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?
Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM
21.37%chance
3715435
OptionVotes
19178
5218
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
Sep 8, 6:55 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM
3.37%chance
3514386
OptionVotes
5497
530
Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?
Oct 2, 2:34 AMJan 2, 3:31 AM
49.93%chance
199346
OptionVotes
10014
9986
When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?
Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM
40%chance
444082
OptionVotes
1057
822
Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?
Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32930
OptionProbability
57
43
Conditional on first contact with aliens, will aliens wipe out humanity by 2100?
Jul 27, 5:17 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM
31.76%chance
11242
OptionVotes
1135
926
OptionProbability
50
50
OptionProbability
50
50
OptionProbability
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9