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Prediction markets for Fiscal Year 2025

Will the United States officially withdraw from NATO by March 31, 2026?

Jan 18, 12:50 PMMar 31, 8:59 PM

1.61%chance

3919398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7811

128

If Trump wins, will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50%?

Mar 18, 1:07 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

96.52%chance

368532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5474

240

Will QS invoice a customer an amount exceeding $50 million in a single quarter during the Fiscal Year 2026.

Dec 21, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

132269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

10

Switch 2s sold by June 5th 2026?

May 29, 2:16 AMJun 5, 11:59 PM

81573

OptionProbability

15M - 29.9M

30M - 59.9M

60M - 99.9M

Below 15M

100M - 199.9M

200M - 300M

Above 300M

83

6

4

3

1

1

1

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

44.49%chance

61314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

814

What will the federal budget deficit be at the end of the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 9:30 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

9777

OptionProbability

$1000bn - $1999bn

$2000bn - $2999bn

$3000bn+

$0 - $999bn

Below $0

29

28

28

14

1

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.72%chance

11469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1232

812

Will Kyndryl Holdings recover from today's crash within 6 month?

Feb 9, 8:57 PMAug 9, 8:49 PM

16%chance

3287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

44

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

38%chance

6169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

528

478

Will brazilians be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.16%chance

7109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Artemis 4 Launch Year

Feb 14, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

3102

OptionProbability

2029

2030

Not before 2035/Announced Cancelled

2031

2032

2033

2034

48

18

11

9

7

4

4

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