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Prediction markets for Fiscal Year 2025

Will there be a US federal shutdown in November 2026?

Feb 4, 5:47 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

5.02%chance

199687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8375

385

Will QS invoice a customer an amount exceeding $50 million in a single quarter during the Fiscal Year 2026.

Dec 21, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1%chance

132269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

10

How much money will GiveWell raise, excluding from Open Philanthropy, in 2025?

Aug 20, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6959

OptionProbability

350-400m

300-350m

400-450m

450-500m

200-250m

250-300m

150-200m

500-550m

550-600m

More than 600m

Less than 150m

30

20

14

6

5

5

4

4

4

3

2

Trump gives people cash from tariffs in 2026?

Nov 20, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.6%chance

16684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

36

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

68.67%chance

14673

OptionVotes

NO

YES

800

247

Will the White House announce deportations over 1 million by EOY 2027

Feb 9, 10:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.79%chance

12669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1432

698

Will we see the transit funding initiative on the ballot?

Jan 24, 5:00 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

96.97%chance

8623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

566

18

Chicago declares bankruptcy by 2035?

Sep 21, 11:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.49%chance

7169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Artemis 4 Launch Year

Feb 14, 2:25 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

5129

OptionProbability

2029

2030

Not before 2035/Announced Cancelled

2031

2032

2033

2034

44

23

10

8

7

4

3

Will brazilians be better off at the end of 2026?

Jan 6, 3:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.4%chance

8119

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Anthropic’s GAAP Net Income be Higher in fiscal year 2026 than fiscal year 2025?

Jun 14, 4:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.25%chance

586

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

60

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