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Fiscal Year 2025 News

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Prediction markets for Fiscal Year 2025

Will at least twice as many deportations by U.S. ICE occur in Fiscal Year 2025 compared with Fiscal Year 2024?

Jan 22, 5:29 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

3.93%chance

3760013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53434

4038

Will the NSF budget for FY 2026 be below $6 billion?

Feb 21, 8:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.54%chance

1919116

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3150

153

Louvre robbers apprehended before US Government shutdown ends?

Oct 25, 8:41 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

98.89%chance

2914528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9448

106

If Trump wins, will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50%?

Mar 18, 1:07 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

96.52%chance

368532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5474

240

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.57%chance

173792

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3937

616

Will deportation of illegal immigrants go up by 50% in 2025?

Mar 18, 1:10 PMMay 1, 6:59 AM

96.41%chance

191396

OptionVotes

NO

YES

931

22

Switch 2s sold by June 5th 2026?

May 29, 2:16 AMJun 5, 11:59 PM

81360

OptionProbability

15M - 29.9M

Below 15M

30M - 59.9M

60M - 99.9M

100M - 199.9M

200M - 300M

Above 300M

72

15

6

4

1

1

1

What will the federal budget deficit be at the end of the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 9:30 PMNov 1, 6:59 AM

9777

OptionProbability

$1000bn - $1999bn

$2000bn - $2999bn

$3000bn+

$0 - $999bn

Below $0

29

28

28

14

1

for fiscal year 2025, Canadian NSERC grants to total to at least 10% of total US NSF grant budget?"

Mar 23, 11:20 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

79.22%chance

3477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

195

51

Chicago declares bankruptcy by 2035?

Sep 21, 11:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

33.49%chance

7169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

71

30-year Treasury yield hits 5.6% during Trump's second term?

May 30, 7:20 PMJan 19, 11:59 AM

28.24%chance

6149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

63

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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