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Prediction markets for Flagship

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

26

23

21

14

9

5

2

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will at least one U.S. state flagship university permanently close by the end of 2028?

Jan 28, 7:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.29%chance

171776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1712

196

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 Opus (or equivalent next-gen flagship) before October 1, 2026?

Feb 12, 9:21 AMNov 1, 12:00 AM

89.66%chance

21997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

265

16

Will at least one U.S. state flagship university permanently close by the end of 2034?

Oct 23, 9:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.78%chance

22810

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Feb 6, 11:09 PMFeb 6, 10:38 PM

7421

OptionProbability

5.4

5.5

5.6

6

6.5

7

5.7

5.8

5.9

100

82

66

66

46

45

41

28

10

A flagship 3-way foldable phone enters the US market in 2026.

Nov 8, 10:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.22%chance

6270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

938

What will be the top Flagship recommendation of the next Planetary Decadal Survey?

Nov 20, 2:30 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3200

OptionProbability

Other

Uranus Orbiter

Enceladus Orbiter and/or Lander (including orbilander concept)

Europa Lander

Neptune Orbiter

Venus Aircraft

Mercury Lander

30

28

25

7

6

4

1

Will Apple skip sequential numbering and not name its next flagship iPhone released in 2026 “iPhone 18”?

Jan 9, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.54%chance

4102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

847

Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?

Feb 4, 7:17 AMJul 1, 11:58 PM

34.71%chance

560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

137

73

In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?

Apr 5, 4:51 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

65.19%chance

342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

77

which non-flagship horizons hack club event will get the most attendees?

Mar 22, 3:06 PMDec 31, 4:06 PM

115

OptionProbability

horizons europa (europe)

horizons crux (australia)

horizons equinox (africa)

horizons arcana (singapore)

horizons sol (south america)

horizons polaris (canada)

Other

34

11

11

11

11

11

11

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