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Prediction markets for Flagship

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

85.24%chance

73829372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

252397

43577

Will Kamoa-Kakula copper production exceed 500,000 tonnes for calendar year 2027?

Apr 7, 1:26 PMJul 1, 3:59 AM

13.33%chance

715589

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24563

5217

Will at least one U.S. state flagship university permanently close by the end of 2028?

Jan 28, 7:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.7%chance

182046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1982

141

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Feb 6, 11:09 PMFeb 6, 10:38 PM

101408

OptionProbability

5.4

5.5

5.6

6

6.5

7

5.7

5.8

5.9

100

100

100

100

46

45

3

3

2

Will at least one U.S. state flagship university permanently close by the end of 2034?

Oct 23, 9:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

37.78%chance

23885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

779

which non-flagship horizons hack club event will get the most attendees?

Mar 22, 3:06 PMDec 31, 4:06 PM

9682

OptionProbability

horizons arcana (singapore)

horizons europa (europe)

horizons polaris (canada)

horizons crux (australia)

horizons equinox (africa)

horizons sol (south america)

Other

85

4

4

2

2

2

2

OpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?

Aug 31, 9:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.07%chance

5287

OptionVotes

NO

YES

214

47

What will be the top Flagship recommendation of the next Planetary Decadal Survey?

Nov 20, 2:30 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3200

OptionProbability

Other

Uranus Orbiter

Enceladus Orbiter and/or Lander (including orbilander concept)

Europa Lander

Neptune Orbiter

Venus Aircraft

Mercury Lander

30

28

25

7

6

4

1

Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?

May 16, 10:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46%chance

4180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

863

Will Apple skip sequential numbering and not name its next flagship iPhone released in 2026 “iPhone 18”?

Jan 9, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.53%chance

5171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

847

Will OpenAI in EOY 2027 primarily serve inference on their flagship model on non-GPU hardware

Sep 3, 5:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.01%chance

772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

133

75

In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?

Apr 5, 4:51 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

65.19%chance

342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

77

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