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Prediction markets for Flagship

CATL receives license renewal for Yichun Lithium mine by end of Feb 2027?

Jun 9, 2:12 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

60.65%chance

4765967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130486

84436

Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?

Feb 4, 7:17 AMJul 1, 11:58 PM

4.85%chance

193929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

443

23

Will at least one U.S. state flagship university permanently close by the end of 2028?

Jan 28, 7:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.7%chance

182046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1982

141

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 Opus (or equivalent next-gen flagship) before October 1, 2026?

Feb 12, 9:21 AMNov 1, 12:00 AM

99.46%chance

311990

OptionVotes

NO

YES

771

2

Will at least one U.S. state flagship university permanently close by the end of 2034?

Oct 23, 9:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

23847

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

816

Which Model numbers will OpenAI release as a flagship before adding a letter (e.g. ‘o’ in 4o, o1)

Feb 6, 11:09 PMFeb 6, 10:38 PM

7696

OptionProbability

5.4

5.5

5.6

6

6.5

7

5.7

5.8

5.9

100

100

92

87

46

45

41

28

10

which non-flagship horizons hack club event will get the most attendees?

Mar 22, 3:06 PMDec 31, 4:06 PM

7548

OptionProbability

horizons arcana (singapore)

horizons europa (europe)

horizons polaris (canada)

horizons crux (australia)

horizons equinox (africa)

horizons sol (south america)

Other

69

10

9

3

3

3

3

A flagship 3-way foldable phone enters the US market in 2026.

Nov 8, 10:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.22%chance

6270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

938

What will be the top Flagship recommendation of the next Planetary Decadal Survey?

Nov 20, 2:30 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3200

OptionProbability

Other

Uranus Orbiter

Enceladus Orbiter and/or Lander (including orbilander concept)

Europa Lander

Neptune Orbiter

Venus Aircraft

Mercury Lander

30

28

25

7

6

4

1

Will Nvidia launch an RTX 5090 Ti, Titan, or equivalent flagship GPU before 2028?

May 16, 10:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48%chance

3139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

823

Will Apple skip sequential numbering and not name its next flagship iPhone released in 2026 “iPhone 18”?

Jan 9, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.54%chance

4102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

847

In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?

Apr 5, 4:51 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

65.19%chance

342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

77

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