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Prediction markets for Flagship

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

26

23

21

14

9

5

2

Will projects which recently received grants via FTX Foundation, Inc. (i.e., the non-profit entity associated with the Future Fund) receive a demand to give the money back (e.g., to be distributed among FTX bankruptcy creditors)?

Nov 14, 3:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.61%chance

745724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2141

900

Will at least one U.S. state flagship university permanently close by the end of 2028?

Jan 28, 7:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.29%chance

171776

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1712

196

Which YouTubers are going to be at Campfire Flagship? (Hack Club)

Jan 23, 12:26 PMFeb 23, 12:00 PM

121279

OptionProbability

Code Bullet (Evan)

Michael Reeves

William Osman

Tech Joyce

PolyMars

The Backyard Scientist

Jabris

Sondering Emily

3Blue1Brown

Veritasium

Mark Rober

MrBeast

99

97

93

88

87

83

83

83

45

34

16

9

Will at least one U.S. state flagship university permanently close by the end of 2034?

Oct 23, 9:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.15%chance

22800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1273

785

Will Android still use the Linux kernel by 2035?

Jun 8, 4:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.82%chance

9762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1771

948

A flagship 3-way foldable phone enters the US market in 2026.

Nov 8, 10:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

53.22%chance

6270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

938

What will be the top Flagship recommendation of the next Planetary Decadal Survey?

Nov 20, 2:30 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3200

OptionProbability

Other

Uranus Orbiter

Enceladus Orbiter and/or Lander (including orbilander concept)

Europa Lander

Neptune Orbiter

Venus Aircraft

Mercury Lander

30

28

25

7

6

4

1

GrapheneOS: which upcoming flagship's brand will be supported?

Nov 6, 7:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2134

OptionProbability

Other

OnePlus

Samsung

Xiaomi

IQOO

Realme

Vivo

Honor

Nubia

IGNOREME (wrong option)

20

16

12

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Will Apple skip sequential numbering and not name its next flagship iPhone released in 2026 “iPhone 18”?

Jan 9, 5:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.54%chance

4102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

847

In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?

Apr 5, 4:51 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

65.19%chance

342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

108

77

Will OpenAI publicly release a new flagship ChatGPT model (e.g. GPT-6) by 1July 2026 (23:59 UTC)?

Feb 4, 7:17 AMJul 1, 11:58 PM

40.98%chance

320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

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