OptionProbability
Lionel Messi to score at least one goal
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 200
The Golden Boot winner to score 6+ goals
VAR to overturn at least 20 decisions
Someone scores 5+ goals within group stage
USA survives group stage
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 300
10+ goals in any match
2+ red cards in any match
2+ European countries reach top 4
Any player scores at least a goal 3 matches in a row
The Golden Boot winner to score 8+ goals
Goal from last kick of the game
Cristiano Ronaldo to score a goal
3+ penalty shootout
Mexico survives group stage
Canada survives group stage
The Golden Ball is awarded to a player from tournament winner
South American team reaches semi-final
3+ red cards in any match
6+ yellow cards in any match
Red card issued for mouth covering
Team with 0 wins in Group Stage
Black player gets the red card
Player throws captains armband
Bicycle kick attempt
Team scores after being down to 10 men
Both teams score in stoppage time
Player scores against country of birth/heritage
Player bleeding on camera during match
Team loses possession from delay throw-in
15+ minutes of the stoppage time
Champion is unbeaten
USA player gets the red card
Disruption at Iran match
A fully southern hemisphere team (Australia, NZ, South Africa, Uruguay or Argentina) makes semi finals.
Hooligans light the fireworks at night by team hotel for disruption
Player scores a hat-trick
Over 6.5 matches ending 0-0 (regular time only)
Over 289.5 total goals scored*
Over 9.5 own goals scored
Over 10.5 red cards
Spain goes further than France
Over 7.5 goals scored in a single group stage match
Over 202.5 goals scored in group stage
US scores in every single group stage match
Scorigami (a match ends in a score that has never happened at a World Cup; for the purpose of this answer refers only to result before extra time / shootout)
Play suspended for more than 1.5 hours in a single match
Bottle thrown on field
Teenager scores a goal (non penalty shoot-out)
Messi is top Argentinian goal-scorer
Team finishes match with 9 players
25+ people arrested at stadium
French-born player scores against France
Team makes it to Round of 32 with no goals conceded
3 or more coaches resign or are fired before end of World Cup
Single top goalscorer in tournament (not tied)
Goal scored directly from a free-kick
A coach is sacked before the end of the tournament
Team is undefeated for the entire tournament (only wins & draws)
Champion is a first place group stage winner
First penalty shootout kick of tournament is missed/saved
Team ends Group Stage with a clean sheet
Player not born in the country they are playing for scores 2+ goals
Trump still alive at end of final match
“Puto” chant at match
Crowd jump registers on local seismic sensor
Referee falls down
Match has a dedicated moment of silence
Any host places 1st in their group
Curaçao scores a goal
Haaland scores over 3.5 goals
Messi scores a goal at 39 years old
Both players in this photo* play each other in a match
Fan hospitalized for heat related illness
Kylian Mbappe & Harry Kane to Score 9+ Goals Combined
Trump attends match
Neymar plays in a match
Player dies during World Cup
Vuvuzela spotted in the stadium stands
An over-enthusiastic goal celebration results in a shattered corner flag
A penalty shootout contains a missed winning kick (Matchball)
At least two Mohammeds (all variants) score ≥1 goal
Player tears their ACL
Players cleat falls off their foot
Unauthorized person gets on the pitch during match
gruesome leg/ankle/arm injury
Another match day ending in all draws (regular time)
Will either Bosnia and Herzegovina or Qatar advance to the next round?
Will Cristiano Ronaldo Score Atleast A Goal In Next Match Against Uzbekistan
Will any group finish with either all draws or zero draws?
Will both brothers of any pair score at this World Cup?
Foam spray is used on field to mark penalty / free kick
Cape Verde scores a goal
Will any more team(s) from Europe finish 4th in the group?
Messi to score a free kick
Ronaldo to cry at the world cup
Team loses after leading 2-0
Golden Boot Winner wears Nike branded cleats
World Cup winner to never trail in a match
Penalty shootout goes 6+ rounds
Pride flag at Egypt v Iran match
Austria Pays Its Debt to Algeria? (Austria loses or draws with Algeria AND both teams qualify. Inspired by the 1982 “Disgrace of Gijón”)
Vorzinha concedes a goal by Argentina player in regular play
First team to lead goes through in 24+ knockout matches? (penalties count)
This World Cup Market reaches 500 traders
Gianni Infantino travels more than 50K miles during the tournament by airplane
Short Fuse: The Netherlands - Morocco ends in penalties
Any match is 0-0 going into penalty shootouts
Panenka penalty to be scored
Player scores 8+ goals
Player gets a straight red card in Round of 16
A team scores 4 goals in a knockout round game
A team loses after scoring 3 unanswered goals
Spain scores 3 or more goals against Austria [Short Fuse]
An even number of games go to a shootout
Any team scores 4 unanswered goals in a knockout stage match
Flash Market: No goals in 2nd half stoppage time today (July 3 - last three Rd of 32 games)
More goals scored in 3rd Place Match than in the Final (excluding penalty shootouts)
England v Mexico Match on July 5 rescheduled to a different time? (Currently scheduled 6pm local time)
Mexicans mess with England team before match in the any way (fireworks, beeping, delays)
Paraguay is playing undeniably the Haramball tonight
German Freddy back on the twitter (formerly known as the x) before end of final
In quarterfinals, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games
team that wins bronze has more goals across tournament than both gold and silver
Infantino and Trump sitting next to each other at any match
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (QF)
Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (QF)
Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (QF)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (QF)
USA strikes Iran anytime from start of quarterfianals to ending of them
Trump flies in the Qatari Air Force One to final
Paraguayan Senator Celeste Amarilla goes on another rant about Mbappe before end of final
France, Spain, England & Argentina all go to Half Finales
Mikel Merino finishes the World Cup with more or the same number of goals as Lamine Yamal
A French player leaves the field injured against Spain (like Mendes and Courtois)
Goal scored in stoppage time (SF)
Over 3.5 goals scored (SF)
Goal scored from a header (SF)
Goal is disallowed for offside (SF)
Team wins by exactly 1 goal (SF)
Mitch McConnell alive for entire final match?
match
Over 4.5 goals in semi finals
Substitute scores in semi finals
Spain ball posession under 55.5% in semi final
Ball hits the woodwork in semi final match
English fans acting unruly before, during or after Argentina match
Both England and Argentina score a goal in the semifinal
Both Teams to Score Argentina/ England in 90minutes plus stoppage time. (Not Extra time)
Match ends in a draw in regular time (F)
Final combined match score is an odd number (F)
Goal is disallowed for offside (F)
Team wins by exactly 1 goal (F)
Match is won in extra-time (F)
Goalkeeper ends match with a clean sheet (F)
Substitute scores a goal (F)
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (F)
Spain first to score (F)
Match is tied at halftime (F)
First yellow card given to Argentina (F)
Player gets 2 yellow cards in a match (F)
Trump touches in any way the Messi at final match/stadium
Argentinian player leaves injured in the final (like Mendes, Courtois and Saliba)
Score 0-0 in first part of extra time
Spain wins
Argentina lose Spain
World Cup team coach resigns or is fired before end of July (after final)
Asian player gets the red card
FIFA’s official total revenue for the 2023-2026 cycle exceed $16.billion
The ballon d’or is awarded to a player from World Cup winner
Asian player misses penalty kick
USA to reach the Quarter-finals or further
A penalty shootout to decide the Final match
No red cards issued in the Final match
Erling Haaland to win the Golden Boot
An African nation to reach the Semi-finals
5+ group stage winners advance with 9 points (3 wins)
15+ cards in any match
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 400
Any one of Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappe, or Erling Haaland to score a hattrick
Goal scored within 1st minute
Penalty shootout to decide semi-final match
Penalty shootout to decide a quarter-final match
20+ penalty goals
30+ penalty goals
Messi and Ronaldo play in the same match
Asia team reaches semi final
The Golden Boot winner is decided by # assists
Goalkeeper attempts shot in PKs
Player arrested / detained at any time of tournament
Trump kicks or holds a soccer ball at any time during tournament
Weather postponement or delay for greater than 3 hours
Player bit during match
Bald person gets the red card
Football is coming home?
Match delayed due to homophobic crowd chant
Coach on camera during match smelling finger(s)
Headbutt during match
Laser pointer on goalie during match
Someone escorted off field shirtless
Player gets spat on during match
Ronaldo gets in referee face
England loses on penalties
More own goals than red cards in tourney
VAR overturns second yellow card
Player walks off pitch protesting referee
Player shits in the pants during match
The Netherlands does not survive group stage
Confirmed case of Ebola at the match
Player is complaining about the Trionda ball / blames it for the losing
Trump attends 3 or more games
All 3 host countries win the opener
ICE makes a capture at the stadium
Player with the heat stroke / heat related illness
Smoke bomb during match in USA
Flares in stands during match in USA
Taylor Swift & Travis Kelce attend match
Elon Musk attends match
Betting scandal reported
Player wearing a face mask in semi-final match
All 48 teams score at least 1 goal
Fastest goal record beaten (11 seconds)
Over 8.5 penalties missed (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 30.5 penalties scored (excludes shoot-outs)
Over 395.5 yellow cards
Any host nation in quarter final
US goes further than Mexico
Canada goes further than US
Over 1.5 of the visible penis in world cup tourney (during match, on pitch)
Goal scored from own half
Olimpico goal (goal scored directly from corner kick, counts if corner taker is credited as the goalscorer by FIFA)
Goalkeeper scores a non-penalty goal
Game is turned around in stoppage team (one team leads at 90:00, the other team scores twice or more in stoppage time to win it)
A player or their teams gets sanctioned by FIFA (i. e. a fine, an overturned result, a suspension) for a goal celebration with a political or politics-adjacent message
Voodoo doll or alive chicken in stands
Team captain gets red card
Ronaldo scores before Messi
Pulisic top Team USA goal scorer
All teams concede at least 1 goal in group stage
Team gets removed or disqualified
Team makes it to Round of 16 with zero yellow cards
2 UEFA teams in final
Final is a rematch of a previous World Cup
Any match is canceled or postponed
Golden boot & golden ball won by the same player
Team wins a match without making a single substitution
Coaches of both teams in final match are wearing suits
Both teams in final have red on their flag
Team finishes third in group and makes it to final
Youngest player of the tournament scores a goal
Final features a team that has never made it to the final before
Visible debris thrown during corner kick attempt
Oldest player in tournament gets a yellow card
Team gets to final on all penalty shoot-outs in knockout rounds
Any player injured in opening group match & out for rest of tournament
Last penalty shoot-out kick of tournament is missed/saved
Palestinian or Israeli flag on field during match
Player wearing oxygen mask on sideline
Fans invade field during match
Major security incident
Animal (not birdy) is on field during match
Team USA fans pull off a decent Tifo
Shooting incident (non-ball) at stadium
Match is forfeited
Bonnie Blue attending a match
4+ Corners in Every Group Stage Match
Player drinking Liquid Death at hydration break
Salt Bae attending a match
King Charles attends match
Record for hottest WC match ever played broken (>101°)
Player blames an injury on poor stadium grass
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei attending a match
Unofficial drone is reported flying over a stadium
Players from any other league outscore PL players in the tournament
USA plays Iran
Mohamed Salah (Egypt) scores 5+ goals during Group Stage Fixtures (Round of 64)
Ronaldo does jerkin move
Trump dancing at match
Team reaches the quarter-finals through draws and penalties
A group-stage match is decided by a freak "Olympico" goal scored directly from a corner
The fastest goal of the tournament is scored within 30 seconds
6+ teams with negative goal difference advance from the group stage
Player suffers cardiac arrest
Winning team has a foreign manager
Omar Artan is at a World Cup match
Another match with 3+ red cards
Players / members of team attempt to defect
A third-placed team is eliminated with 4+ points
Any team with <3 points advances from the group stage
Freddy attends the final match
Freddy shown during a match broadcast
Someone from Trump administration celebrating in locker room
Will any player be seen drinking gatorade during a hydration break?
Messi gets a yellow card
Ronaldo puts up the goose egg (excludes any penalty or shootout)
Trump acts innapropriate with trophy at final
German Freddy is uncovered to be the marketing stunt
Messi scores on every game he plays
Will Merlin the duck correctly predict both remaining MEX group stage matches?
Haaland scores on every game he plays
Match delayed due to anti-Trump crowd chant
Champion is a first time World Cup winner
Ronaldo does not start
Knockout Stage (incl 3rd/4th) to match or exceed Group-Stage scoring average
Play suspended for more than 2.5 hours in a single match
Team particpates in 3+ penalty shoot-outs
Any two brothers play against each other (Both must be on the pitch at the same time)
World Champion's goals > total goals of all teams out in group stage
Flipping Coinflips – Do teams shooting first win more penalty shootouts?
5+ hat tricks
Messi scores more goals than Mbappe
Penalty shootout goes 7+ rounds
Any country ranked outside FIFA Top 10 to reach semifinals (as of 6/11)
Over 14.5 own goals scored
Golden Glove Winner wears Senda, Rinat, RG, Voit or Adidas brand glove
Total goals in the tournament to exceed 310
Emmanuel Macron attends match
The Netherlands reaches half-final
16+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals inc. Extra Time (no Penalties)
17+ knockout matches to be won by 2+ goals - Regular time only!
France becomes finalist
France, Mexico, and Argentina all make it to the quarter finals
Belgium plays against The Netherlands
Of 5 competing continents, Europe has highest survival % in round of 32
16+ Knockout Stage Clean Sheets (0–0 after ET counts as 2)
Short Fuse: Germany scores 3 or more goals against Paraguay
FIFA officially apologizes or announces a general review of the VAR system following Germany’s disallowed goal vs Paraguay
Messi scores a goal in every match Argentina plays in
Overall penalty conversion rate to be 66.67% or higher ( all penalties no matter when)
Norway becomes finalist
Panenka penalty to be bottled
Three straight games going to penalties
Messi scores a goal in penalty shootout
Any team gets to penalty shootout and doesn't score a goal
Player with 9 or more assists
Enock Kabwende shown during broadcast
Announcer says Doctor Congo during 7/1 match broadcast
Any Trump attending BIH v USA match
Lead (or tied lead) goal scorer is on the team that wins the World Cup
World Cup winner won at least 2 games by shootout
A host country reaches the semi-finals
Belgium becomes finalist
Croatia gets a red card against Portugal [Short Fuse]
In knockouts, more teams with red cards WIN their matches
Round of 16 Special: „My vision, my rules“ - Referee sticks to original (no) Penalty, Goal or Red Card decision after On-Field Review
🇦🇷 ARG vs CPV 🇨🇻 – ARG wins both halves and scores more than three times as many goals as CPV
Own goal is scored (Rof16)
Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (Rof16)
Ronaldo scores a non-penalty kick goal (Rof16)
Team wins by exactly two goals (Rof16)
Mbappe doing the dictator point
Red card in CAN v MAR?
In round of 16, the alphabetically earlier country wins more games
3 continents reach semifinals
France's appeal successfully overturns Michael Olise's yellow card before the quarter-finals kickoff
Player doing lip trill shown in slow motion during final match broadcast on FOX
Trump attending the USA Belgium match
Trump takes credit for USA win within 1 day
Trump mentioned during USA BEL Fox broadcast today
Pitch Invader during USA BEL match today
Frances' tournament ends before Graham Platner drops out of Maine Senate race
"Is the TV broken?": There will be 4 or more On-Field Reviews (OFR) from the Quarterfinals onwards
"Shocking decision, Ref!": Any goal disallowed by VAR in the Quarterfinals AND any goal disallowed by VAR in the Semifinals (according to ESPN)
There will be a single leader in the Golden Boot ranking after the Quarterfinals (no tiebreak applies)
Norway player displays the flu like symptoms during match
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (QF)
Own goal is scored (QF)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (QF)
Over 1.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (QF)
Announcer says "Tom Brady" during France v Morocco
Player gets straight red card (QF)
Trump picks team he is supporting to win for the final game
Sam Altman attends final
JD Vance attends final
Morrocans stealing the towels or water bottles during game
Any Morrocan gets the red card
Morocco player picks up a ball during France possession 3+ times
France player picks up a ball during Morocco possession 3+ times
Shirtless player on field during match (QF)
Messi misses another penalty shot - includes shootout (QF-F)
Messi subbed out before the end of a match he played in (QF-F)
[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (SF)
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (SF)
Over 0.5 matches end with a penalty shoot-out (SF)
Match ends 0-0 in regular time (SF)
All teams score 1+ goals (SF)
Mbappe scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)
Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (SF)
Own goal is scored (SF)
Player gets a straight red card (SF)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (SF)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (SF)
Shirtless player on field during match (SF)
Match is won in extra-time (SF)
Yellow card given for simulation (SF)
Harry Kane scores a non-penalty kick goal (SF)
Bellingham gets yellow card (SF)
Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (SF)
Strait of Hormuz open at start of final match?
Over 17.5 corners in semi finals
Mbappe & Oyarzabal to record 2+ shots on target in semi final
Gavi shown card in semi final
Otamendi shown card in semi final
Anything occurring to make it historical final
The market creator deems the result of the final to have been swayed by bias from the referee
Two different players with the same jersey number score in the final
Mbappé leads Golden Boot race after 3rd place match & Messi overtakes in Final to win the Award
Mbappé less than 60 mins on the pitch in Consolation Final 3./4.
Sore Losers: Any player or official from the losing team to instantly remove or reject their silver medal after the Final
Own goal is scored (F)
Intruder on field during match (F)
Goal scored in stoppage time (F)
Over 2.5 goals scored (F)
Player scores 2+ goals in a match (F)
Penalty kick missed during regular/extra time (F)
Goal scored from a header (F)
A shot with xG greater than 0.75 gets missed (F)
Player gets a straight red card (F)
Penalty kick is given in 2nd half (F)
Argentina last to score (F)
[France + Argentina] score more goals than [Spain + England] (F)
Goal scored within the last 15 minutes (F)
Match ends 1-1 in regular time (F)
Final score is 1-2 or 2-1 (F)
Match ends with penalty shoot-out (F)
Winning team has lower total ball possession (F)
Both teams score 1+ goals in 2nd half (F)
Goal is scored from outside the penalty box (F)
Over 1.5 goals scored (F)
All teams score 1+ goals (F)
First yellow card in 2nd half given to Spain (F)
Goal scored in first 15 minutes of 2nd half (F)
Argentina first to score in 2nd half (F)
No yellow cards given in 1st half (F)
Goal scored within the first 15 minutes (F)
Yellow card given for simulation (F)
Ball “heartbeat” graphic shown during FOX/FS1 broadcast (F)
Both players in this photo* score and/or assist (F)
Argentina gets a penalty in regular time in the finals
Banner referencing historical territorial dispute visible during final or 3rd place match
"Albiceleste Cardiac Arrest": Argentina scores the game's final goal from 75' onward to win or force extra time (F)
"Pessi's Redemption": Messi scores a penalty and wins the Golden Boot
Javier Milei tweets VLLC or "Viva la libertad carajo" before the winning captain lifts the trophy (F)
The final score in the final is an internet certified funny number e.g. 2-1, 6-7, 6-9, 4-20 (ascending and descending order allowed)
Score 0-0 in second part of extra time
Argentina scores 1-1 in extra time
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OptionProbability
Defeats Surge before step 5,969
Defeats Erika before step 29,643
Gets the lift key before step 9,615
Defeats the champion
Defeats Koga before step 19,086
Defeats Blaine before step 29,925
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 30,275
Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch) before step 35,911
Full team of 6 pokemon
Gets HM05 (Flash)
Gets the Bicycle
Visits Seafoam Islands
Finishes Rocket Hideout before step 13,222
Catches Articuno, Moltres, or Zapdos
Defeats Erika before step 23,533
Finishes Pokemon Mansion by 29,487 steps
Defeats Blaine before step 29,925
Finishes second Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto left 2F switch) before step 45,200
Finishes 3F Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 3F switch)
Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch)
50% Finishes first VR puzzle in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 2643 steps from first VR entrance to finish)
Gets HM03 (surf) and the Gold Teeth in less than 13 Safari Zone attempts
Gets HM03 (surf) and the Gold Teeth in less than 7 Safari Zone attempts
Catches a Pokemon in the Safari Zone
Completes Pokemon Mansion while the video stream is down
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni while the video stream is down
Finishes first VR puzzle while the video stream is down
Picks up Omanyte from the Fossil Scientist
Changes the party further (from IVY/LUNA/ZIP/WEEDY/TIDE/FROST)
Ivy reaches level 85
Video stream freezes again after current incident (frozen on Pokemon Mansion) is fixed
Defeats the champion before 40,000 steps
Defeats the champion before 50,000 steps
Defeats the champion before 75,000 steps
Stream reaches 1000 viewers at any time
Catches Mewtwo
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
Gets HM02 (Fly)
Records at least 100 unique Pokemon in the Pokedex (caught/evolved, not just seen)
Stores an item in the PC
Gets trapped in a Cycling Road pocket without fly
Run ends to reset with a model not branded as Haiku, Sonnet, or Opus
New run before end of June
Any kind of intentional rollback due to the video issues
BUZZ reaches level 30
Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 7,998
Defeats Sabrina before step 16,804
Teaches DIG
Uses a Poke Doll on the Pokemon Tower ghost
Finishes the gyms in the same order as Opus 4.6 (Brock->Misty->Surge->Sabrina->Koga->Erika->Blaine>Giovanni)
Runs out of money while attempting safari zone
Finishes Silph Co. before step 15,855
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 15,000
Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 1542 steps from start to finish)
50% Finishes Silph Co. in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 498 steps from start to finish)
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 20,000
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 25,000
Defeats Blaine before Sabrina
Catches Moltres
Catches Zapdos
Finishes VR while the video stream is down
Defeats the champion while video stream is down
Defeats the champion before 30,000 steps
Stream is still down May 18th
Stream is still down June 1st
Completes the final boulder puzzle, then returns to Route 22 instead of continuing to the Indigo Plateau
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100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
10
10
10
9
9
9
8
7
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Muse Spark 1.2 (or any Meta model)
Qwen 3.8 (or any Qwen model)
GLM-5.x (or any GLM model)
Deepseek V4 Pro GA (or any Deepseek model)
Grok 4.x
Minimax M3.x (or any Minimax model)
Claude Fable 5.x
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Pro
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash
Claude Haiku 5.x
Claude Sonnet 5.x
GPT-5.7
TML-Large (or any Thinking Machines model)
Kimi K3.x (or any Kimi model)
Gemini 3.x (or 4.x) Flash-Lite
GPT-6
Claude Opus 5.x
Any Safe Superintelligence (SSI) Model
100
99
93
89
88
81
75
62
60
35
34
27
26
24
19
18
14
2
OptionProbability
Someone qualifies 12 balls in 2025
Eivind Dragsjo wins the 2025 Numbers Juggling League
Someone performs the trick f4444444444, from and to a cascade, before the end of 2026 (similarly to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42LOiJE5yLg)
Someone flashes 15 balls before the end of 2027
Someone flashes 14 balls in 2025
At least 5 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025
At least 10 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025
Someone flashes 10 clubs in 2025
The European Juggling Convention 2025 is cancelled
100
100
43
17
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1736
576
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1181
915
OptionProbability
2030
2028
2029
2033
Other
2027
2031
2032
2026
2025
2024
25
15
8
8
8
7
7
7
6
5
4
OptionProbability
Add tooltips that explain how everything works
Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions
If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.
Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.
Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories
Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets
Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.
Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently
Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)
Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.
Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search
Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.
A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user
Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people
Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up
Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.
Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.
Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"
Open markets in new tab by default
Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely
Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms
Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing
Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market
Dark Mode
Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.
Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column
Let people see the position of a selected user in each market
Add reminders to check back on a market after some time
Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.
Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.
Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market
Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded
Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?
Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date
Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster
Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields
Allow people to place long-term limit orders
Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description
Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary
Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)
Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple
Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market
Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)
Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)
Make a row flash when its probability changes
Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard
Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed
Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data
Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself
Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")
Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized
Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.
Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.
Include all unlisted markets
72
63
55
55
55
55
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
41
41
41
41
OptionVotes
YES
NO
126
79
OptionVotes
NO
YES
170
169
OptionVotes
YES
NO
111
90

