Flash News

GPT-5.3 (doesn't include GPT-5.3 Codex)

GPT-5.4 (includes GPT-5.4 Codex or other non-Pro variants)

Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Preview

GPT-5.4 Pro

Grok 4.20 (out of beta)

Minimax M2.6/M2.7

Gemma 4

Haiku 4.6

Kimi K3

DeepSeek V4-Lite

Gemini 3.1 Flash Preview

GLM-5-Code

Gemini 3.1 Pro GA

Deepseek V4 (Full)

Opus 4.7

Gemini 3.1 Flash GA

Sonnet 5

Sonnet 4.7

Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite GA

Grok 5

Minimax M3

DeepSeek V3.3 or V3.5

GPT-5.3-Thinking

GPT-5.3-Pro

Finishes Virdian Forest before step 838

Beats Brock before step 1874

Defeats Erika before step 29,643

Gets the lift key before step 17,169

Defeats Koga before step 83,715

Defeats Sabrina before step 81,500

Defeats Blaine before step 204,059

Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni

Finishes Pokemon Mansion

Reaches Victory Road before step 206,038

Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch)

Opus 4.6 is playing

Reaches Victory Road before step 100,000

Talon reaches level 10

Teaches DIG

ROCKY reaches level 10

Shelly reaches level 50

Finishes Mt. Moon before step 5,000

Finishes Silph Co. 50% faster than Opus 4.5 (<=25,593 steps from start to finish, before step 40,452)

Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 50% of the time of Opus 4.5 (<= 55,911 steps from start to finish, before step 82,314)

Finishes Rocket Hideout 50% faster than Opus 4.5 (<= 5,931 steps start to finish, finished by or at step 14,940)

Visits Seafoam Islands

Finishes Rocket Hideout before step 14,000

Finishes Silph Co. 80% faster than Opus 4.5 (<=10,237 steps from start to finish, before step 25,096)

Fights Rival on Route 22

Defeats Rival on Route 22

Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 10% of the time of Opus 4.5 (<= 11,182 steps from start to finish, before step 37,585)

Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 5% of the time of Opus 4.5 (<= 5,591 steps from start to finish, before step 31,994)

Sixth Gym Badge Acquired is Rainbow Badge (Erika/Celadon)

Defeats Erika before step 25,000

Finishes Pokemon Mansion by 40,000 steps

Enters Pokemon Mansion before step 27,500

Defeats Blaine before step 50,000

Defeats Blaine before step 40,000

Finishes second Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto left 2F switch)

Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch) before step 60,000

Finishes second Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto left 2F switch) before step 60,000

Enters Victory Road 2F before 40,000 steps

Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch) a second time

Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released

New sonnet/opus model is released before the stream resumes

Run ends to reset with Sonnet 4.6

There is/was a harness bug affecting Rocket Hideout

Full team of 6 pokemon

Finishes 3F Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 3F switch)

Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch)

Stores an item in the PC

Shelly reaches level 75

Catches Articuno, Moltres, or Zapdos

Fights Moltres

Gets HM02 (Fly)

Two Pokemon reach level 75

Blade evolves

Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch) before step 100,000

ROCKY reaches level 50

Evolves Luna into Clefable

Defeats the champion

Gets HM05 (Flash)

Gets Eevee

Gets trapped in a Cycling Road pocket without fly

Runs out of money while attempting safari zone

Gets the Lapras in Silph Co.

Talon reaches level 50

Trades Talon for DUX

Gets the Bicycle

Run ends while attempting Seafoam Islands

Catches a pokemon in the Safari Zone

Finishes Mt. Moon before step 3192

Beats Misty before step 4819

Defeats Surge before step 5,969

Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 7,998

Catches an Oddish and only Oddish using balls

Visits Cinnabar Island before getting Gold Teeth

Blacks out battling Misty

Uses a Poke Doll on the Pokemon Tower ghost

Finishes the gyms in the same order as Opus 4.5 (Brock->Misty->Surge->Erika->Sabrina->Koga->Blaine>Giovanni)

Misidentifies the Card Key item ball as an NPC in Silph Co again

Sixth Gym Badge Acquired is Volcano Badge (Blaine/Cinnabar)

Erika is defeated while video for Twitch is frozen

YES

YES

Someone qualifies 12 balls in 2025

Eivind Dragsjo wins the 2025 Numbers Juggling League

Someone performs the trick f4444444444, from and to a cascade, before the end of 2026 (similarly to https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42LOiJE5yLg)

Someone flashes 15 balls before the end of 2027

Someone flashes 14 balls in 2025

At least 5 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025

At least 10 different endurance world records will be broken in 2025

Someone flashes 10 clubs in 2025

YES

2030

2028

2029

2033

Other

2027

2031

2032

2026

2025

Add tooltips that explain how everything works

Let a user filter to markets in which they have positions

If the user enters a date, it should be treated as a range from the beginning of that day to the end, not just the single millisecond at which that day begins.

Make the choice of which markets to store locally smarter, so it won't accidentally cross the 5MB localStorage limit.

Add proper inputs for dates and drop downs for categories

Multi-buy in multiple-choice markets

Add a quickbet button where the user inputs their expected probability, and it calculates and places the appropriate Kelly bet size based on their portfolio.

Add a tiny graph/sparkline on each row to show how the market has changed recently

Generate RSS feeds for user-specified queries (like https://hnrss.org/newest?points=100)

Add support for arbitraging similar markets/answers, either treating them as summing to 1 or specifying a target relative change percentage.

Make a userscript that overrides Manifold's default search with Isaac's search

Add an option to display each answer on a multiple-choice market as its own row in the search results.

A column to display the market price X amount of time ago, input by the user

Allow users to define more than one dashboard, and share them via URL with other people

Option to show dates in a standardized day/hour/minute format that all lines up

Add a filter to only show markets the user hasn't seen before.

Make the search boxes look nicer so they're not just a giant pile of input boxes. Lay them out in columns or hide ones the user isn't using or something.

Add an OR conjunction for search terms, so people can search for something like "question includes 'altman' OR 'OpenAI'"

Open markets in new tab by default

Add a "concise mode", which removes all extraneous text from the table, like the percent sign, M$ sign, etc. and aligns them all nicely

Add fuzzy searching that can catch typos and synonyms

Let people resize columns, or add intelligent column resizing

Let people see the limit orders of a selected user in each market

Dark Mode

Add support for other platforms. Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

Add tiny arrows in each column header as a visual indicator that they can click there to sort the column

Let people see the position of a selected user in each market

Add reminders to check back on a market after some time

Add direct links to user profile and/or group pages, maybe accessible by shift-clicking on them.

Check to see if any of the code has changed upon page load, and if so wipe the cached market data and reload it.

Let people see the profit of a selected user in each market

Fix the graphical issues that cause fields to unfocus and dropdown menus to disappear each time new data is loaded

Add some way for clicking on a group or creator to wipe the rest of the search. Maybe shift-click? Or maybe it should be the default?

Add more complex diff detection so that the client can catch up on what it missed if it loses internet for a few minutes, or at least tell the user it's out of date

Add hotkeys to make trading and searching even faster

Add more sensible step values to the numeric input fields

Allow people to place long-term limit orders

Make the "last updated time" field include edits to the market description

Somehow convince Manifold to waive the API fee if bets are placed via Predictionary

Make it look not-terrible (this suggestion is for aesthetics only, not functionally-useful layout/display features)

Allow users to see whether a multiple-choice market is select-one or select-multiple

Display who can add answers on a multiple-choice market

Give it a better name than Predictionary. (Suggestions welcome.)

Add support for Polymarket front-running. (https://medium.com/@eightyhi/blockchain-based-amms-arent-fit-for-prediction-markets-bbe6ad7a33ca)

Make a row flash when its probability changes

Add a bulk bet button that can bet on all markets in the dashboard

Fix the bug that causes some resolved markets to not be marked as closed

Add a way to view/query detailed historical market data

Add a one-click feedback form on the page itself

Fix links to Manifold markets (currently all links go to "/{username}/undefined")

Add a filter/sort by recently subsidized

Add an option to change the height of each row such that it's proportional to the width of the interval between the previous market's close time and the next market's close time, so distance down the page represents time in the future.

Fix the bug that causes numeric markets to be displayed as though they were regular percentage markets.

YES

NO

YES