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Prediction markets for Flop

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

May 16, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.52%chance

454256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1764

571

Most training run compute greater than 2e27 FLOP by EOY 2026?

Jul 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.83%chance

82667

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3147

318

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

735

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM

60.3%chance

312137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

811

Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?

Dec 18, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.2%chance

321275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

507

By the end of 2030, will a 2e29 FLOP training run have ever taken place?

Sep 9, 11:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.3%chance

7810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1794

557

How many FLOPs will go into training the first ASL-3 model?

Oct 3, 2:08 AMOct 10, 3:59 AM

7693

OptionProbability

1e27

3e26

Other

3e25

1e25

1e26

1e24

3e24

34

25

15

9

8

6

2

2

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

6459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

74

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2030 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.98%chance

14221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

282

175

[DIRECTOR JAIL?] After the flop of "Babylon", will Damien Chazelle's next feature film have a budget >$50 million?

Mar 21, 3:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69.66%chance

8144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

103

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2040 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.01%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

73

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

May 2, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Below 100,000

100,000 - 499,999

500,000 - 999,999

1,000,000 - 2,499,999

2,500,000 - 4,999,999

5,000,000 - 9,999,999

10,000,000+

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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