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Prediction markets for Flop

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

54.96%chance

365319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5032

4011

Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?

Apr 4, 12:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.87%chance

84943

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3421

292

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

May 16, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.52%chance

454256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1754

561

When will a US government AI run overtake private AI compute by FLOP?

Jun 5, 2:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

353086

OptionProbability

<2035

<2030

<2029

>=2035

<2028

<2027

<2026

62

50

47

38

32

19

10

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

Dec 11, 1:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.19%chance

332522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1989

688

Most training run compute greater than 2e27 FLOP by EOY 2026?

Jul 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.62%chance

42113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3109

322

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM

61.96%chance

261964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

784

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.84%chance

221596

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1576

292

Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?

Dec 18, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.2%chance

321275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

507

By the end of 2030, will a 2e29 FLOP training run have ever taken place?

Sep 9, 11:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.3%chance

7810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1794

557

Will Google's "checkout in search" flop?

May 23, 6:21 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

60.14%chance

9122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

123

81

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

74

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