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Prediction markets for Flop

Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?

Dec 18, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.12%chance

388003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2489

715

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM

46.07%chance

364674

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

924

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

May 16, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.52%chance

454256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1764

571

Most training run compute greater than 2e27 FLOP by EOY 2026?

Jul 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.83%chance

82667

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3147

318

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

735

By the end of 2030, will a 2e29 FLOP training run have ever taken place?

Sep 9, 11:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.3%chance

7810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1794

557

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

6459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

74

Number of H100 equivalent chips (by Flops) Huawei will make in year 2026

May 2, 4:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1200

OptionProbability

500,000 - 999,999

Below 100,000

100,000 - 499,999

1,000,000 - 2,499,999

2,500,000 - 4,999,999

5,000,000 - 9,999,999

10,000,000+

86

2

2

2

2

2

2

How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)

Jun 2, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4192

OptionProbability

10-15

16-20

21-29

Other

30-49

31

22

16

16

14

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.99%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

99

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

83.11%chance

370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

40

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2040 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.01%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

73

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