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Prediction markets for Flop

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

May 16, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.52%chance

454256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1764

571

When will a US government AI run overtake private AI compute by FLOP?

Jun 5, 2:26 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

353086

OptionProbability

<2035

<2030

<2029

>=2035

<2028

<2027

<2026

62

50

47

38

32

19

0

Most training run compute greater than 2e27 FLOP by EOY 2026?

Jul 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.86%chance

52363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3359

298

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

735

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM

60.76%chance

271984

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1244

804

Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?

Dec 18, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.2%chance

321275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

507

Will the US executive order flops ceiling be updated/raised/revised before 2027?

Nov 1, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

97.97%chance

81095

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

43

By the end of 2030, will a 2e29 FLOP training run have ever taken place?

Sep 9, 11:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.3%chance

7810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1794

557

How many FLOPs will go into training the first ASL-3 model?

Oct 3, 2:08 AMOct 10, 3:59 AM

6683

OptionProbability

1e27

3e26

Other

3e25

1e25

1e26

1e24

3e24

30

26

16

9

8

6

2

2

How many FLOP of compute will have been executed by the time chess is solved?

Jan 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

260

OptionProbability

>= 10^30 FLOP

>= 10^35 FLOP

>= 10^40 FLOP

>= 10^45 FLOP

83

50

50

40

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2040 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:56 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

46.01%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

73

Will jose luis ricon's brain still calculate 10^24 or more FLOPS in 2040?

Apr 11, 8:57 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.68%chance

427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

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