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Prediction markets for Flop

Will an AI model use more than 1e28 FLOPS in training before 2026?

Apr 4, 12:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.82%chance

106543

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3434

291

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

52.58%chance

365551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4800

4210

At least one of the most powerful neural nets at end of 2026 will be trained using 10^27 FLOPs

May 16, 8:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83.52%chance

454256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1764

571

Will a lab train a >=1e26 FLOP state space model before the end of 2025?

Dec 11, 1:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.3%chance

343022

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2489

612

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.84%chance

242303

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

735

Most training run compute greater than 2e27 FLOP by EOY 2026?

Jul 23, 9:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.62%chance

42113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3109

322

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

May 25, 8:34 PMDec 31, 9:32 PM

61.96%chance

261964

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1276

784

Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?

Dec 18, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.2%chance

321275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

507

By the end of 2030, will a 2e29 FLOP training run have ever taken place?

Sep 9, 11:44 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

76.3%chance

7810

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1794

557

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2025 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

92.24%chance

11581

OptionVotes

NO

YES

470

156

Will the largest machine learning training run (in FLOP) as of the end of 2030 be in the United States?

Jun 1, 6:55 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.93%chance

13211

OptionVotes

NO

YES

272

178

How many FLOP of compute will have been executed by the time chess is solved?

Jan 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

260

OptionProbability

>= 10^30 FLOP

>= 10^35 FLOP

>= 10^40 FLOP

>= 10^45 FLOP

83

50

50

40

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