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Prediction markets for Fluent

C-3PO by 2030?

Apr 9, 11:12 AMJan 1, 6:01 AM

42.49%chance

311581

OptionVotes

YES

NO

975

956

Will AI pass the Winograd schema challenge by the end of 2030?

Dec 23, 12:16 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.51%chance

271054

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1536

912

By 2040, will there be audio translation tech that's a full substitute for knowing a foreign language?

Dec 29, 7:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89.39%chance

15931

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

952

Where will I study abroad?

Apr 28, 5:52 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

8548

OptionProbability

Cape Town, South Africa

NONE

Berlin, Germany

Madrid, Spain

Oxford, UK

Kyoto, Japan

Santiago, Chile

Washington, DC

Other

Beijing, China

Florence, Italy

New York City

Paris, France

Istanbul, Turkey

Hong Kong

Australia (mobile)

64

7

6

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

By 2028, can AI perform translation as good as a human who is fluent in both languages but unskilled at translation?

Jan 5, 10:42 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

94.05%chance

10393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

547

108

Will the comprehensive rulebook of Magic: The Gathering contain no errors at any point before 2030?

Jan 30, 5:06 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

5.07%chance

7333

OptionVotes

YES

NO

396

33

By end of 2030, English speakers will be able to fluently communicate with Spanish speakers using a translation device

Apr 1, 4:08 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.92%chance

9274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

390

89

If intelligent aliens visit us, will AI-based technologies outperform analog linguistics in translating their language?

Mar 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.65%chance

13186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1037

977

Will >300k people know Esperanto fluently by the end of 2040?

May 18, 10:17 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

29%chance

9159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

254

185

Does being smart and innovative require that AIs can never truly, deeply conform to social rules? [In development still]

Dec 22, 8:25 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.02%chance

9125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

119

Will I be fluent in 3 languages by 2030

Sep 5, 6:09 AMJan 12, 7:59 AM

20.36%chance

3100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

By 2028, can AI perform translation as good as a human who is fluent in both languages but unskilled at translation?

Jan 5, 1:19 PM

120

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