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Prediction markets for Fluid

Which of these disasters will strike the world next?

Jul 6, 9:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

965909

OptionProbability

Pandemic

Climate

AI

Nuclear

63

21

13

3

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

Jul 4, 6:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 PM

131949

OptionProbability

2027-2028

2025-2026

2029-2030

2039-2040

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

44

30

27

27

26

26

26

26

Will Trump abandon the Iran war?

Mar 6, 2:21 AMApr 26, 1:20 AM

70.27%chance

341806

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

65

Will Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?

Mar 1, 2:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

75%chance

10970

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1732

577

Will we get synthetic kidneys before 2035?

Jun 18, 5:49 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

21.15%chance

11931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will we get synthetic hearts before 2035?

Jun 13, 12:19 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

48%chance

10517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Physics Nobel 2026: Awarded Field(s) Multimarket

Jan 2, 3:18 PMSep 30, 2:16 PM

7393

OptionProbability

Quantum Mechanics (includes Quantum Computing)

Astrophysics or Cosmology

Condensed Matter Physics

Optics or Photonics

Atomic or Molecular Physics

Geophysics, Climate or Atmospheric Physics

Biophysics

Fluid dynamics

Semiconductor Physics

Superconductivity

Particle Physics

Thermodynamics

37

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

24

17

8

6

Will we get synthetic livers before 2035?

Jun 16, 10:13 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

30.46%chance

8383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

151

66

Will we get synthetic stomachs before 2035?

Jun 26, 11:48 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

38.19%chance

8329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

127

79

Will we get synthetic eyes before 2035?

Jun 21, 11:51 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

19.72%chance

7319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

202

50

Will I meaningfully choke from eating pills without fluids by 2030?

Nov 10, 3:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

24%chance

8171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

39

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