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Prediction markets for Focus

Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?

Nov 1, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.8%chance

372244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1915

747

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

43.57%chance

211189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1340

600

Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?

Dec 19, 4:37 AMJul 4, 6:59 AM

22.35%chance

181105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

130

Will Max get a permanent position with a research focus at a top 10 university within 5 years of finishing his PhD?

Jun 25, 1:58 PMJul 1, 2:01 PM

47%chance

14753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

956

Will Giving What We Can recommend any organisations primarily focused on artificial sentience by 2030?

Feb 20, 11:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72.58%chance

17434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

306

120

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.45%chance

18399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

960

Will McDonald's acquire a company focusing on lab grown/cultivated cell meat products by the end of 2027?

May 3, 2:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.01%chance

4240

OptionVotes

YES

NO

339

30

In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,

Feb 9, 3:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62%chance

6125

OptionVotes

NO

YES

172

131

Best Engineering-Focused A.I. News Source (Permanent)

Apr 4, 4:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6108

OptionProbability

Other

Product Hunt, Filtered for A.I. and Last 90 Days https://www.producthunt.com/search?q=AI&lastLaunchedAfter=90%3Adays

Hacker News

Massachusetts Institute of technology

Twitter

42

23

17

9

9

Which target will Tianwen-5 mission focus on?

Oct 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

290

OptionProbability

Jupiter

Neptune

Saturn

Uranus

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

34

28

14

11

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will Focus Features win Best Picture before April 1st 2031? Currently they have the most Oscar nominations without a win

Dec 14, 4:07 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

80.11%chance

463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

41

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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