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Focus News

Will members of the EA community create an EA-focused university by 2030?

Nov 1, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.8%chance

372244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1915

747

Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?

Jun 13, 6:27 PMJan 20, 7:27 PM

43.08%chance

221199

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

593

Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?

Dec 19, 4:37 AMJul 4, 6:59 AM

22.35%chance

181105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

130

Will Max get a permanent position with a research focus at a top 10 university within 5 years of finishing his PhD?

Jun 25, 1:58 PMJul 1, 2:01 PM

47%chance

14753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

956

Will Giving What We Can recommend any organisations primarily focused on artificial sentience by 2030?

Feb 20, 11:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72.58%chance

17434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

306

120

Will I regret working a side job in a restaurant instead of focusing on my software engineering career?

Mar 27, 5:56 PMMar 28, 4:59 AM

23.85%chance

19404

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

944

Best General, Not Necessarily Research-Focused A.I. News Source (Permanent)

Apr 4, 3:45 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6173

OptionProbability

Twitter

Other

Mastodon

OpenAI

Mit news

56

35

4

3

2

In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,

Feb 9, 3:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.49%chance

7127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

130

Best Engineering-Focused A.I. News Source (Permanent)

Apr 4, 4:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

6108

OptionProbability

Other

Product Hunt, Filtered for A.I. and Last 90 Days https://www.producthunt.com/search?q=AI&lastLaunchedAfter=90%3Adays

Hacker News

Massachusetts Institute of technology

Twitter

42

23

17

9

9

Which target will Tianwen-5 mission focus on?

Oct 16, 9:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

290

OptionProbability

Jupiter

Neptune

Saturn

Uranus

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

34

28

14

11

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

Will a space mission focused on the investigation and exploration of Jupiter's moon Io be approved before 2030?

Apr 1, 1:57 PMDec 31, 4:01 PM

41.81%chance

646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

131

127

Which target will Tianwen-6 mission focus on?

Jul 10, 6:28 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Mercury

Venus

Mars

An asteroid

Jupiter

Saturn

Uranus

Neptune

A dwarf planet

A comet

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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