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Prediction markets for Focus Mode

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040?

Nov 30, 5:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

15.84%chance

323732

OptionVotes

NO

YES

998

793

When will SCOTUS hear a Second Amendment case about a weaponized flying drone?

Apr 24, 2:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3450

OptionProbability

No such case heard

2029

2028

2027

2026

27

26

25

15

7

In 2030, will there be more than 10 $5bn companies that are some form of large language model focused on a specific task. ie not Microsoft, not OpenAI,

Feb 9, 3:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.49%chance

7127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

174

130

Will there be a psychedelics + closed-loop TMS paper by EOY2028?

Nov 11, 11:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60.64%chance

458

OptionVotes

NO

YES

124

81

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