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FOMC News

    Prediction markets for FOMC

    Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

    Dec 8, 4:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    135128219

    OptionProbability

    Other

    Donald Trump and/or JD Vance

    Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including ChatGPT or any other variation)

    Zohran Mamdani

    Sam Altman

    Xi Jinping

    Pope Leo XIV (Robert Prevost)

    Mark Carney

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    Jerome Powell

    Jensen Huang

    Self Driving Cars (Uber, Waymo, etc.)

    The People of Minnesota (and other variations)

    Epstein

    Ozempic (Including "Semiglutide", "GLPs", "Eli Lily", etc )

    [Next FOMC Chair]

    Robots (not self driving cars)

    64

    12

    5

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    PROP BET - What will happen in Trump's attempt to fire Fed Reserve Gov Lisa Cook? [Add Answers]

    Aug 27, 2:24 AMJan 1, 3:14 AM
    5620080

    OptionProbability

    A court issues a temporary injunction preventing Cook’s removal before 2026

    Cook remains in her position as of the September rate-setting meeting

    At least 3 current or former Fed Govs issue public statements defending Cook or Fed independence before 2026

    Supreme Court ruling on the shadow docket

    Cook gives a published interview (3 questions or more) before 2026

    A Supreme Court ruling (regular or shadow docket) has at least 3 dissents

    A higher court reverses a lower court (appeal, tro, etc)

    A sitting GOP Senator criticizes the firing (more than just concerns)

    Cook's replacement votes when regional Fed Presidents' terms are up for renewal (Feb 2026)

    Trump will make up a nickname for Cook (announced via post or interview)

    A plaintiff sues the Fed, asking court to enforce Cook's firing

    Cook is barred from at least 1 FOMC meeting, AND her firing is ultimately deemed illegal

    Cook is indicted for a felony related to her mortgages before litigation about her firing is completed

    Senate Committee holds a hearing for nominee to Cook’s seat before 2026

    Trump threatens to fire Powell "for cause" since he didn't remove Cook

    Trump actually attempts to fire Powell before Cook firing litigation is complete

    Cook resigns

    Cook is charged with any crime by the Justice Department before 2026

    Trump announces a nominee for Cook's seat before 2026

    Yields on 10-year US Treasuries surpass 4.600% anytime before 10/1/25

    Supreme Court hears arguments or makes ruling on the incident before 2026

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    66

    51

    25

    22

    18

    12

    10

    6

    2

    1

    1

    1

    1

    0

    0

    0

    Fed decision in April?

    Dec 11, 9:03 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM
    1211068

    OptionProbability

    No change

    25+ bps increase

    25 bps decrease

    50+ bps decrease

    95

    3

    2

    1

    Will the Fed change its 2% inflation target before the end of Trump’s term?

    Dec 14, 1:34 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM
    17.84%chance
    4810173

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1609

    816

    How many net Fed rate cuts in 2026?

    Nov 1, 8:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    177724

    OptionProbability

    1 cut (Target 3.25-3.50)

    0 cuts (Target 3.50-3.75)

    2 cuts (Target 3.00-3.25)

    3 cuts (Target 2.75-3.00)

    Other

    4 cuts (Target 2.50-2.75)

    28

    24

    21

    12

    10

    5

    Fed decision in April?

    Mar 19, 2:53 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM
    64620

    OptionProbability

    No change

    25+ bps increase

    50+ bps decrease

    25 bps decrease

    95

    3

    1

    1

    Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?

    Mar 5, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    29.49%chance
    153583

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1546

    647

    Will the FOMC cut rates before Inflation minus Unemployment Rate is below negative 4%?

    May 4, 2:06 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM
    97.27%chance
    92474

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    2665

    105

    Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?

    Feb 12, 2:02 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM
    10.47%chance
    51925

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    2925

    342

    How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

    Dec 11, 8:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    91365

    OptionProbability

    1 (25 bps)

    0 (0 bps)

    2 (50 bps)

    3 (75 bps)

    4 (100 bps)

    5 - 6 (125 bps - 150 bps)

    7 - 8 (175 bps - 200 bps)

    9 - 10 (225 bps - 250 bps)

    11 - 12 (275 bps - 300 bps)

    35

    24

    22

    8

    4

    2

    2

    2

    2

    What will the Fed rate be end of FY2026

    Jul 22, 11:47 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM
    5690

    OptionProbability

    3 - 4.99%

    1 - 2.99%

    5 - 6.99%

    Below 0%

    0 - 0.99%

    7 - 8.99%

    9 - 10%

    Above 10%

    42

    35

    10

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    Will the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates at least 3 times before December 31, 2026?

    Mar 18, 4:25 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM
    25%chance
    11166

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    173

    58

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