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Prediction markets for For You

Is Nicotine Good for You?

Jan 4, 9:50 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

25.04%chance

766208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

914

On which dates will you get a 20 mana trader bonus for a 1000 mana market?

May 26, 8:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 AM

125375

OptionProbability

May 27

June 2

June 10

June 17

June 26

July 15

August 29

December 25

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

80

TRUE or FALSE: “Masturbation is good for you”

Dec 14, 8:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

71.28%chance

264272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4207

2318

How many Spotify listens will 'All I Want for Christmas is You' have on Christmas 2029?

Nov 11, 5:53 AMDec 25, 11:59 PM

72340

OptionProbability

4.0B - 4.8B

4.8B - 5.6B

3.2B - 4.0B

2.5B - 3.2B

5.6B - 6.0B

Below 2.5B

Above 6.0B

39

26

21

6

6

2

1

Are Psychedelic Drugs Good for You?

Dec 31, 9:28 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

52.47%chance

11711

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

952

Will "Don't Let LLMs Write For You" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 11, 4:32 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

4401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

In what year will All I Want For Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey lose the streak of reaching #1 song in December?

Mar 25, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9399

OptionProbability

Other

2031

2027

2030

2028

2026

2029

2025

29

15

13

10

9

9

9

8

Is Fasting Good for You?

Dec 31, 9:29 PMJan 7, 10:59 PM

70.09%chance

7321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

153

65

Is Caffeine Good for You?

Dec 31, 9:25 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

34.38%chance

6318

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

72

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2037?

Mar 25, 4:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.05%chance

5189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

250

87

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2029?

Mar 25, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.1%chance

7124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

277

176

If you make an ugly woman your wife, will you be happy for the rest of your life?

Jun 5, 11:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.82%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

71

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