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Prediction markets for Foreigners Act

Will any country attack the continental United States in 2025?

Jun 17, 11:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.42%chance

347583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4177

239

Will the United States engage in a war with another country by January 1, 2026?

Jan 2, 1:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.95%chance

224244

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1942

515

Will anyone be charged under the Logan Act by EOY 2025?

Oct 27, 3:14 AMJan 11, 6:59 AM

6.68%chance

102831

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3736

268

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

22.16%chance

202757

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

801

Who will be convicted for acting as an unregistered foreign agent before 2030? [ADD ANSWERS]

Sep 5, 3:31 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

91191

OptionProbability

Linda Sun

Lauren Chen

Tucker Carlson

Hunter Biden

58

49

19

10

In what calendar year will BCCI first allow (active) Indian players to play in foreign T20 cricket leagues?

Jan 10, 5:28 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

5551

OptionProbability

Not by the end of 2028

2026

2027

2025

2028

2024

29

23

18

15

12

3

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Will the US withdraw military support from Israel before 2030?

Nov 15, 1:59 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.7%chance

10289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

556

308

Iranian fuel & gunpowder factory explosions caused by foreign actors?

Apr 29, 4:29 PMDec 31, 5:07 PM

21.44%chance

7135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

191

52

Will India extradite Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh by EoY 2026?

Mar 18, 6:16 AMApr 2, 6:59 AM

40.19%chance

242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

Mar 9, 8:51 PM

00

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