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Prediction markets for Form

Will Elon musk form a new political party

Jul 1, 1:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.15%chance

361436739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2327

1046

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

70.09%chance

9914436

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1530

877

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53%chance

5410415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6420

3008

Will any US state pass legislation banning any form of commonly-used gender-affirming medical care for adults before 2030?

Nov 15, 10:11 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.28%chance

595993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2816

612

Will Labour form a 2 term government?

May 23, 12:47 PMSep 1, 10:59 PM

45.58%chance

204882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

915

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

Will AI "smart glasses" be a popular AI wearable form factor by 2027? (eg Meta Ray Bans)

Mar 25, 10:24 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

82.44%chance

443737

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2178

414

Will the EU introduce any form of direct taxation during the 2024-2029 legislative period?

May 19, 2:41 PMJun 25, 9:59 PM

22.43%chance

193648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2117

1093

Will a company formed after 2020 be worth > 1 Trillion by 2030?

Jan 23, 3:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.23%chance

482573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

970

Will a paramilitary group form around the anti immigration movement in the UK in the next 6 years?

Aug 14, 12:10 AMDec 21, 11:59 PM

26.79%chance

131177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

605

Will Sovereign House continue to exist in some form by 2026?

May 18, 9:31 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.73%chance

4126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

891

In mid 2027 will ai tools be able to accurately fill in new doctor onboarding forms?

Jun 4, 9:51 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

51.04%chance

321

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

980

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