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Prediction markets for Formal Order

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.62%chance

5411110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6126

3286

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

3.66%chance

104271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5133

195

Will the US formally annexation Greenland by Dec 31, 2030>

Jan 11, 3:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

313372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129

98

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

53.02%chance

442859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

821

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?

May 6, 5:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.74%chance

331805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

747

The double-tap strikes on boats in the Caribbean in September 2025. Will any US military personnel be fired? |ADD YOURS

Dec 2, 1:33 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

241291

OptionProbability

No, no such consequences

Even if firing occurs, the information will not be disclosed before the market end date, which is 31 March 2026.

Other

Yes, in 2025

Yes, in 2026

69

27

2

1

1

Great American Empire by 2030?

Jan 20, 1:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.05%chance

12788

OptionVotes

YES

NO

258

39

Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2030?

May 6, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.4%chance

14611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

816

Which country will leave the 🇺🇳 United Nations in 2025–2026?

Jun 23, 7:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4273

OptionProbability

No country

🇮🇷 Iran

🇮🇱 Israel

Other

91

3

3

3

Will Taiwan commission two Hai Kun-class submarines by the end of 2027?

Sep 30, 2:14 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

61.41%chance

217

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

Will any country formally leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2026?

Dec 6, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.19%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

977

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