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Prediction markets for Formal Order

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.62%chance

5411110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6126

3286

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

3.66%chance

104271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5133

195

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

53.02%chance

442859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

821

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?

May 6, 5:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.74%chance

331805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

747

Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2030?

May 6, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.4%chance

14611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

816

Will Trump serve any time in a jail or prison by July 4th, 2029, for any past or new convictions?

Jul 27, 3:31 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM

7%chance

13513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

364

27

Will Trump tariff Canada 100%

Jan 24, 2:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.48%chance

13473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

352

28

Which countries will order GCAP, the sixth generation fighter jet?

Mar 25, 8:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3455

OptionProbability

Italy

Japan

United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia

Sweden

Germany

South Korea

Australia

Canada

France

India

United Arab Emirates

Poland

Netherlands

Belgium

Norway

Finland

Singapore

Turkey

United States

Spain

Denmark

Greece

72

72

72

66

66

66

66

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

34

34

34

34

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Sep 15, 1:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

6251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

103

Will any country formally leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2026?

Dec 6, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.19%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

977

Will Taiwan commission eight Hai Kun-class submarines by the end of 2045?

Sep 30, 2:19 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

48.04%chance

02

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52

48

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