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Prediction markets for Formal Order

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

1811469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18258

5477

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.62%chance

5411110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6126

3286

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

2.55%chance

115324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6186

162

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

44.21%chance

463034

OptionVotes

YES

NO

996

951

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?

May 6, 5:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.74%chance

331805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

747

Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2030?

May 6, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.4%chance

14611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

816

Will GTA VI be delayed again?

Jun 26, 9:21 PMJul 3, 10:59 PM

8.9%chance

9600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

31

Will Trump serve any time in a jail or prison by July 4th, 2029, for any past or new convictions?

Jul 27, 3:31 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM

7%chance

13513

OptionVotes

YES

NO

364

27

Will any psychedelic be rescheduled from Schedule I before January 1, 2028?

Jun 9, 6:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

96

Will any country formally leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2026?

Dec 6, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.19%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

977

Will the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?

Sep 30, 1:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

50.99%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

69

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