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Prediction markets for Formal Order

Will more than one million people be deported from the United States in 2025?

Nov 4, 10:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.39%chance

8913242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6388

157

Will the US implement some form of capital control by 2029?

Mar 9, 11:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.62%chance

5411110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6126

3286

Will any country formally leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2025?

Aug 12, 4:59 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

2.45%chance

107745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6306

159

Before 2026, Will DL systems outperform humans at describing a picture in words to make human mental images match it?

Jun 19, 12:33 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.26%chance

177396

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4243

236

Antifa designated as foreign terror organization by US government before 2026?

Sep 24, 12:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.13%chance

115226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2368

422

Will NASA be folded into the US Department of Transportation?

Oct 21, 2:40 AMJan 1, 2:27 AM

3.62%chance

94270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5160

194

Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?

May 3, 5:03 PMJan 3, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

442809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1066

868

Will I (@Lion) pay a fine for being a Manifold Partner to the local authorities?

Dec 30, 2:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.4%chance

202779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2935

341

Will GiveWell fund Educate! Experience program by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.92%chance

92626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4193

4124

Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2028?

May 6, 5:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.2%chance

331729

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

786

Will the United States abandon it's policy of "strategic ambiguity" towards China/Taiwan by 2030?

May 6, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.4%chance

14611

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

816

Will any country formally leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2026?

Dec 6, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.19%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

977

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