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Prediction markets for Foundation Models

Is LeCun right that open-source AI will soon become 'unbeatable'? (EOY 2025)

Oct 15, 2:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.09%chance

403219724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11166

1492

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.05%chance

6914171

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

33

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3759

339

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.67%chance

396500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1617

91

Assuming SB 1047 is passed, will the "compute threshold" of 10^26 flop be raised before 2030?

May 19, 1:50 PMJun 2, 3:59 AM

52.58%chance

365551

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4800

4210

Will Microsoft Copilot continue to rely primarily on OpenAI foundation models at the end of 2025?

Mar 19, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

95.92%chance

345296

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4841

219

Foundation Model stock

Apr 9, 9:53 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

142028

OptionProbability

YES

NO

261

194

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.7%chance

4555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1553

644

Is Sam Altman right that no Indian company will successfully compete with OpenAI on foundation models?

Jun 9, 9:51 PMJun 9, 10:59 PM

59.36%chance

4216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

68

55

Will the mean score for The Foundation Model Transparency Index be 50% or more by the end of 2025? (current: 37%)

Dec 6, 7:37 PMDec 31, 4:32 PM

52.12%chance

28

OptionVotes

NO

YES

72

68

Will any single AI model provider announce a raise >$10B in a single round before June 30, 2026?

Dec 8, 5:47 AMJun 29, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Meta

50

50

50

50

How many parameters will the cutting edge foundation model have in 2030?

Oct 10, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

90

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