Foundation Models News

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

56.61%chance

7818030

OptionVotes

YES

1941

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

YES

3759

339

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

YES

1646

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.81%chance

212603

OptionVotes

YES

1873

534

Foundation Model stock

Apr 9, 9:53 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

152034

OptionProbability

YES

257

200

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Jul 11, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.39%chance

6752

OptionVotes

YES

1012

988

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.64%chance

10746

OptionVotes

YES

1470

680

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.7%chance

4555

OptionVotes

YES

1553

644

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

1110

944

Is Sam Altman right that no Indian company will successfully compete with OpenAI on foundation models?

Jun 9, 9:51 PMJun 9, 10:59 PM

52.94%chance

8260

OptionVotes

YES

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8127

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

How many parameters will the cutting edge foundation model have in 2030?

Oct 10, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

Foundation Models News

Prediction markets for Foundation Models

Prediction markets for Foundation Models

Prediction markets for Foundation Models

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Foundation Model stock

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Is Sam Altman right that no Indian company will successfully compete with OpenAI on foundation models?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

How many parameters will the cutting edge foundation model have in 2030?

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