Foundation Models News

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.11%chance

8519324

OptionVotes

YES

1921

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.54%chance

8911423

OptionVotes

YES

3621

355

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

YES

1646

Foundation Model stock

Apr 9, 9:53 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

152034

OptionProbability

YES

257

200

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Jul 11, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.51%chance

81237

OptionVotes

YES

1474

678

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Mar 19, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.96%chance

131199

OptionVotes

YES

1689

592

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

77.45%chance

5855

OptionVotes

YES

1853

540

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

1110

944

Is Sam Altman right that no Indian company will successfully compete with OpenAI on foundation models?

Jun 9, 9:51 PMJun 9, 10:59 PM

52.94%chance

8260

OptionVotes

YES

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9128

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

Will Jose Luis Ricon get a intracortical electrode [eg neuropixels/axoft] to foundation-model his brain by EOY2042?

Apr 14, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.89%chance

310

OptionVotes

YES

102

How many parameters will the cutting edge foundation model have in 2030?

Oct 10, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

Foundation Models News

Prediction markets for Foundation Models

Prediction markets for Foundation Models

Prediction markets for Foundation Models

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Foundation Model stock

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Is Sam Altman right that no Indian company will successfully compete with OpenAI on foundation models?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Will Jose Luis Ricon get a intracortical electrode [eg neuropixels/axoft] to foundation-model his brain by EOY2042?

How many parameters will the cutting edge foundation model have in 2030?

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