Foundation Models News

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Oct 4, 11:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44%chance

7316942

OptionVotes

YES

1921

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.28%chance

8911284

OptionVotes

YES

3759

339

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

Oct 1, 5:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.82%chance

5110257

OptionVotes

YES

1646

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.81%chance

212603

OptionVotes

YES

1873

534

Foundation Model stock

Apr 9, 9:53 AMApr 10, 3:59 AM

142028

OptionProbability

YES

261

194

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.7%chance

4555

OptionVotes

YES

1553

644

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Jul 11, 11:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.25%chance

6552

OptionVotes

YES

1231

812

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Dec 18, 3:46 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

26.96%chance

17440

OptionVotes

YES

1110

944

Is Sam Altman right that no Indian company will successfully compete with OpenAI on foundation models?

Jun 9, 9:51 PMJun 9, 10:59 PM

59.36%chance

4216

OptionVotes

YES

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

Jan 24, 4:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6103

OptionProbability

No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)

No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.

Yes: transformers scale the best

No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)

How many parameters will the cutting edge foundation model have in 2030?

Oct 10, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

Foundation Models News

Prediction markets for Foundation Models

Prediction markets for Foundation Models

Prediction markets for Foundation Models

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before 2030?

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Foundation Model stock

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Nvidia will compete at the foundation layer by Jan 1, 2028

Will a Large Language Model be deployed on a mission to land on a moon or planet by the end of 2030?

Is Sam Altman right that no Indian company will successfully compete with OpenAI on foundation models?

Are Transformers “the last technology to do all of ML” (before AGI)?

How many parameters will the cutting edge foundation model have in 2030?

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