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Prediction markets for Founding

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.88%chance

34862801596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11103

8478

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

47.99%chance

227122509

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12922

3274

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

80%chance

130106735

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2642

458

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of any of the charges he was detained for on the 29th of December 2022

Dec 30, 6:38 AMDec 29, 11:00 PM

47.31%chance

13771351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2713

823

Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.7%chance

1739662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44399

7886

Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?

Aug 6, 8:03 AMMar 31, 11:59 PM

24.05%chance

587915

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5483

2860

Will Elon Musk found another billion dollar company by 2030?

Oct 17, 5:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.61%chance

714553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1333

973

Will the killer of Brian Thompson be found guilty of 1st degree murder by the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.21%chance

253834

OptionVotes

YES

NO

549

18

Will a polynomial time factoring algorithm be found by 2035?

Sep 6, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.96%chance

512583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2216

1303

Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

Oct 2, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.77%chance

412485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

706

Where will the next treasure from The Secret be found?

May 16, 3:59 PMDec 6, 4:57 PM

00

OptionProbability

San Francisco, CA

Charleston, SC

Roanoke Island, NC

St. Augustine, FL

Houston, TX

Milwaukee, WI

Montreal, QC

New Orleans, LA

New York, NY

Other

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

[Ṁ$1000 bounty per] How many errors will be found in "We Didn't Write the Weights" (199 AI-history entries) before 2027?

Oct 13, 12:23 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

00

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4

5

Above 5

14

14

14

14

14

14

14

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