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Prediction markets for Founding

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.25%chance

34412755343

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12579

7770

Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?

Jun 26, 9:08 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

70.29%chance

11691316

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2129

624

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of any of the charges he was detained for on the 29th of December 2022

Dec 30, 6:38 AMDec 29, 11:00 PM

54.06%chance

13269944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2534

1007

Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?

Feb 2, 2:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.15%chance

17160323

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10776

7116

Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.72%chance

1637080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44017

7897

Will Extropic be found to be fraudulent by 2026?

May 18, 1:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8%chance

6016771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3391

295

Will Elon Musk found another billion dollar company by 2030?

Oct 17, 5:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.61%chance

714553

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1333

973

Will the killer of Brian Thompson be found guilty of 1st degree murder by the end of 2026?

Dec 4, 8:41 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

73.2%chance

223175

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

61

Will a polynomial time factoring algorithm be found by 2035?

Sep 6, 8:54 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.96%chance

512583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2216

1303

Will signs of past or present life be found on the Jovian moon Europa by 2050?

Oct 2, 6:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.77%chance

412485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

706

Will Harvard be found liable for damages to Gino, conditional on a trial verdict being reached by 2026?

Aug 22, 11:34 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.38%chance

162263

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1305

1290

Will a satisfactory sub-quadratic attention operator be found to replace quadratic self-attention layers by 2026?

Sep 24, 2:30 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

59.38%chance

151287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1396

787

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