Fourth News

Will Narendra Modi win a fourth term as leader of India?

Jun 10, 11:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.38%chance

519031

OptionVotes

YES

2047

1948

In planecrash, what was the fourth Major Curse placed on Abrogail?

Dec 7, 5:58 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

211901

OptionProbability

Something that helps maintain an elaborate deception involving a pit fiend.

Making Carissa seem like a god to her (ADDED LATE, MAY BE DISQUALIFIED EVEN IF CORRECT)

Something to assist in extracting information from her mind.

Other

A bluff.

Something to prevent her from committing suicide

Something that will do something unpleasant to her if removed, in order to avoid situations where she enters an Antimagic Field or gets hit by a powerful Dispel.

Something to prevent self-deception, in hopes she will realize what awaits her in Hell and voluntarily help them.

Something that helps locating her or bringing her back if she escapes/leaves

Something to impair her in a way potentially useful for multiple purposes, like the abilitystat penalties.

Something else not predicted by any other answer at the time the market closes.

Makes Abrogail's body into a weapon (like a bomb, or plague vector, or something)

Something to further reduce her abilitystats and be removed bit by bit in order to fake Wish-enhancement.

The answer will never be officially revealed.

Something to help her learn rationality

Will Prince William have a fourth child before 2030?

Mar 22, 11:00 PMDec 30, 9:59 PM

20.83%chance

8575

OptionVotes

YES

299

123

Will a Blood Meridian movie release before Fourth of July 2027?

Dec 22, 3:08 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM

34.18%chance

9545

OptionVotes

YES

765

601

Will I have a fourth child before I get a vasectomy?

Dec 23, 7:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.54%chance

7366

OptionVotes

YES

206

Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

Sep 8, 6:27 PMDec 31, 7:22 PM

61.51%chance

3281

OptionVotes

YES

1264

791

Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered?

Mar 13, 1:20 PMMar 20, 3:59 PM

78.73%chance

7175

OptionVotes

YES

355

126

What will China's fourth aircraft carrier be named?

Nov 14, 9:22 AMDec 31, 9:10 AM

4130

OptionProbability

Jiangsu

Guangdong

Other

Zhejiang

Hebei

Shanghai

Xianggang (Hong Kong)

Xinjiang

Taiwan

Xi Fourth Term - Taiwan Invasion (before 2033) Matrix

Jul 8, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5107

OptionProbability

Xi secures fourth term, China doesn't invade Taiwan

Xi secures fourth term, China invades Taiwan

Xi doesn't secure fourth term, China invades Taiwan

Xi doesn't secure fourth term, China doesn't invade Taiwan

What will be the title of the fourth novel in the Baru Cormorant series?

Jul 31, 7:47 PMJul 31, 7:38 PM

143

OptionProbability

The Empress Baru Cormorant

The Martyr Baru Cormorant

The Tycoon Baru Cormorant

Other

The Heroine Baru Cormorant

Formula 1 announces a fourth USA race before 2027 season begins

Mar 20, 9:53 AMMar 14, 1:00 AM

36%chance

240

OptionVotes

YES

160

Will a fourth Riddick movie release in 2026?

Apr 30, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.91%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

106

Fourth News

Prediction markets for Fourth

Prediction markets for Fourth

Prediction markets for Fourth

Will Narendra Modi win a fourth term as leader of India?

In planecrash, what was the fourth Major Curse placed on Abrogail?

Will Prince William have a fourth child before 2030?

Will a Blood Meridian movie release before Fourth of July 2027?

Will I have a fourth child before I get a vasectomy?

Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered?

What will China's fourth aircraft carrier be named?

Xi Fourth Term - Taiwan Invasion (before 2033) Matrix

What will be the title of the fourth novel in the Baru Cormorant series?

Formula 1 announces a fourth USA race before 2027 season begins

Will a fourth Riddick movie release in 2026?

Latest stories