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Prediction markets for Fourth

Will Narendra Modi win a fourth term as leader of India?

Jun 10, 11:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.23%chance

539243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2147

1871

Will a Blood Meridian movie release before Fourth of July 2027?

Dec 22, 3:08 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM

23.36%chance

9845

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1265

682

Will Prince William have a fourth child before 2030?

Mar 22, 11:00 PMDec 30, 9:59 PM

22.35%chance

9579

OptionVotes

YES

NO

283

127

Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

Sep 8, 6:27 PMDec 31, 7:22 PM

67%chance

3442

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

702

Will I have a fourth child before I get a vasectomy?

Dec 23, 7:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.54%chance

7366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

77

Will there be a fourth season of I Think You Should Leave?

Jul 19, 1:18 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.78%chance

4128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

54

When will the fourth novel in the Baru Cormorant series be released?

Jul 31, 7:47 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

2116

OptionProbability

Before 2027

Before 2028

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2031

Before 2032

Before 2033

Before 2026

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

32

Will we discover a fourth transmissible mammal cancer by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 5:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.71%chance

5102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

99

Will China commission a fourth conventional aircraft carrier before 2030?

Jan 1, 6:30 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

64.57%chance

461

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

74

Will a fourth Riddick movie release in 2026?

Apr 30, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.1%chance

547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

What will be the title of the fourth novel in the Baru Cormorant series?

Jul 31, 7:47 PMJul 31, 7:38 PM

143

OptionProbability

The Empress Baru Cormorant

The Martyr Baru Cormorant

The Tycoon Baru Cormorant

Other

The Heroine Baru Cormorant

21

21

21

21

18

Will a fourth US Citizen become Prime Minister of another country before EOY 2035?

Feb 11, 2:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.59%chance

56

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

110

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