Fragments News

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

29364

2889

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Oct 31, 11:03 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

72.83%chance

284419

OptionVotes

YES

1637

611

Has anyone from the Epstein files who communicated with him directly (or Epstein himself) engaged in cannibalism?

Feb 15, 6:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 AM

15.7%chance

444024

OptionVotes

YES

2317

432

All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?

Feb 19, 9:57 AMFeb 26, 10:59 PM

3%chance

162988

OptionVotes

YES

569

What’s The Truth Behind Jeremy Corbell's UAP Claims?

Jan 18, 11:08 AMJan 25, 3:59 PM

112026

OptionProbability

Misinformation

Deliberate Falsehood

Reverse Engineering of Human-Origin Craft

Reverse Engineering by Non-U.S. Entities

100% true

Existence of Non-Human Craft, Not Reverse Engineered

Non-Functional Non-Human Craft

Fragments of Non-Human Craft

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

Dec 20, 1:43 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

18956

OptionProbability

It reaches a stalemate and the south east of Ukraine becomes separate state eventually annexed by russia, Ukraine joins EU and NATO

Ukraine withstands until europe and the US ramp up production and Russia collapses and fragments like the spanish empire before it.

Overall escalation continues in flashpoints around the world, nuclear war renders previous options irrelevant (congratulations if you live in the southern hemisphere, you might live to get an anwser correct!)

The US and europe abandon Ukraine over politics and disagreements, likely NATO and the EU collapse due to folding to military agression

Russia conquers Ukraine and then the rest of europe as they turn around in fear and cowardice, unwilling to fight

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.7%chance

4555

OptionVotes

YES

1553

644

Which of these Team Fortress 2 weapons will have their stats adjusted before 2029?

Nov 17, 4:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5299

OptionProbability

Liberty Launcher

Fan O'War

Candy Cane

Market Gardener

Gas Passer

Ullapool Caber

Righteous Bison

Cleaner's Carbine

Sandman

Tomislav

Pomson 6000

Sharpened Volcano Fragment

Tribalman's Shiv

Back Scatter

Quick Fix

Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028?

May 21, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.55%chance

7225

OptionVotes

YES

1060

1037

What's the explanation for the "Orion Jumbos"?

Jan 2, 6:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

6209

OptionProbability

Ejected Planetary Objects

Other

Gravitational Fragmentation

Binary Coalescence

Unidentified Physical Phenomenon

Dark Matter Interaction

Quantum Fluctuation

Alien Engineering

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Jan 6, 7:42 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

687

OptionProbability

Partial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028

No - Yemen is unified under single internationally recognized government by EOY 2028

Yes - Multiple independent states emerge (South Arabia, Houthi state, others) by EOY 2028

Exit valuation of Fragment (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

240

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Fragments News

Prediction markets for Fragments

Prediction markets for Fragments

Prediction markets for Fragments

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will an independent replication study confirm that poor sleep can be an early indicator of Alzheimer's disease in flies?

Has anyone from the Epstein files who communicated with him directly (or Epstein himself) engaged in cannibalism?

All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?

What’s The Truth Behind Jeremy Corbell's UAP Claims?

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Which of these Team Fortress 2 weapons will have their stats adjusted before 2029?

Previously unpublished Cormac McCarthy work released before 2028?

What's the explanation for the "Orion Jumbos"?

Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?

Exit valuation of Fragment (YC S23)?

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