Fragments News

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

7532370

OptionVotes

YES

25533

3383

Will any country attack the continental United States in 2025?

Jun 17, 11:31 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.38%chance

357600

OptionVotes

YES

4194

238

All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?

Feb 19, 9:57 AMFeb 26, 10:59 PM

3.19%chance

142896

OptionVotes

YES

551

Will UniCredit successfully acquire a majority stake in Commerzbank by 2025?

Sep 19, 8:32 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

15.82%chance

132647

OptionVotes

YES

2313

438

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Jan 15, 9:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.35%chance

132254

OptionVotes

YES

2943

340

Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?

Aug 15, 7:34 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

10.85%chance

312192

OptionVotes

YES

1821

840

What’s The Truth Behind Jeremy Corbell's UAP Claims?

Jan 18, 11:08 AMJan 25, 3:59 PM

112026

OptionProbability

Misinformation

Deliberate Falsehood

Reverse Engineering of Human-Origin Craft

Reverse Engineering by Non-U.S. Entities

100% true

Existence of Non-Human Craft, Not Reverse Engineered

Non-Functional Non-Human Craft

Fragments of Non-Human Craft

Will C++ be superseded by another systems programming language by the end of 2027?

Dec 15, 9:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.83%chance

421703

OptionVotes

YES

1523

602

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

Dec 20, 1:43 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

18956

OptionProbability

It reaches a stalemate and the south east of Ukraine becomes separate state eventually annexed by russia, Ukraine joins EU and NATO

Ukraine withstands until europe and the US ramp up production and Russia collapses and fragments like the spanish empire before it.

Overall escalation continues in flashpoints around the world, nuclear war renders previous options irrelevant (congratulations if you live in the southern hemisphere, you might live to get an anwser correct!)

The US and europe abandon Ukraine over politics and disagreements, likely NATO and the EU collapse due to folding to military agression

Russia conquers Ukraine and then the rest of europe as they turn around in fear and cowardice, unwilling to fight

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.68%chance

4355

OptionVotes

YES

1353

739

What's the explanation for the "Orion Jumbos"?

Jan 2, 6:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

5176

OptionProbability

Ejected Planetary Objects

Other

Dark Matter Interaction

Gravitational Fragmentation

Binary Coalescence

Unidentified Physical Phenomenon

Quantum Fluctuation

Alien Engineering

Exit valuation of Fragment (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:36 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

130

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

Fragments News

Prediction markets for Fragments

Prediction markets for Fragments

Prediction markets for Fragments

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Will any country attack the continental United States in 2025?

All of the EU, USA, China and Russia fragmented by the end of 2030?

Will UniCredit successfully acquire a majority stake in Commerzbank by 2025?

Will anyone on Earth be injured by debris from a Starlink satellite by the start of 2035?

Will the territorial unity of the Russian Federation fragment into two or more sovereign nations before 2026?

What’s The Truth Behind Jeremy Corbell's UAP Claims?

Will C++ be superseded by another systems programming language by the end of 2027?

What is more likely to happen in the russian invasion of Ukraine by 2027

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

What's the explanation for the "Orion Jumbos"?

Exit valuation of Fragment (YC S23)?

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